Game · 2024-25 Final Series
5/9 Game 2
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+63.2pt). The game was decided in South 4: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 6,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +28.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 3,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 26% | 25% | 24% | 25% | -14.1 | -0.2 | -1.5 | +15.8 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 23% | 22% | 38% | -0.6 | +5.4 | -0.2 | -4.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 3,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 17% | 27% | 22% | 33% | -12.2 | -2.0 | -2.9 | +17.0 |
| East 3 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 3,900 from Hiroshi Daigo | 10% | 22% | 19% | 48% | -0.9 | +0.8 | -13.1 | +13.2 |
| East 4 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 7% | 21% | 10% | 61% | +25.0 | -4.9 | -5.0 | -15.0 |
| South 1 | Ken Sonoda ron 1,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 21% | 21% | 11% | 47% | -2.6 | +5.2 | -1.3 | -1.2 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,000 from Ken Sonoda | 18% | 24% | 11% | 47% | +0.1 | -10.3 | -4.1 | +14.2 |
| South 3 | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 7,800 | 14% | 13% | 8% | 66% | -7.8 | -15.1 | +31.6 | -8.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda | 14% | 9% | 22% | 55% | -1.5 | -28.3 | +42.3 | -12.5 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 5,200 from Ken Sonoda | 6% | 0% | 67% | 27% | -3.4 | -7.6 | -0.7 | +11.8 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 6,000 | 1% | 0% | 67% | 32% | -2.6 | -1.7 | -24.2 | +28.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 0% | 13% | 87% | -0.6 | +0.1 | -3.6 | +4.1 |