Game · 2024-25 Final Series
5/12 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+52.4pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Genta Takeuchi, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +46.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Genta Takeuchi 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Genta Takeuchi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -21.5 | -1.5 | +21.5 | +1.6 |
| East 2 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 7,800 | 12% | 23% | 40% | 25% | -7.8 | +20.7 | -7.8 | -5.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 5,200 from Futoshi Watanabe | 8% | 38% | 33% | 21% | -10.9 | -3.2 | +14.4 | -0.3 |
| East 3 | Akina Mizuhara ron 2,600 from Naoki Setokuma | 5% | 33% | 45% | 18% | -0.8 | +10.5 | -6.6 | -3.1 |
| East 4 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 4% | 43% | 37% | 16% | +19.5 | -19.6 | +4.5 | -4.3 |
| South 1 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 12,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 12% | 28% | 46% | 15% | +38.9 | -37.2 | -1.4 | -0.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 35% | 7% | 43% | 14% | -21.6 | -9.2 | +37.5 | -6.6 |
| South 2 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 2,000 | 5% | 3% | 87% | 5% | +6.4 | -7.1 | +1.3 | -0.6 |
| South 3 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 4,000 | 4% | 0% | 92% | 4% | +0.3 | +9.9 | -1.9 | -8.3 |
| South 4 | Genta Takeuchi ron 3,900 from Naoki Setokuma | 2% | 0% | 95% | 4% | -0.5 | -6.7 | -6.5 | +13.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Genta Takeuchi ron 12,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 5% | 0% | 88% | 7% | -4.0 | -1.6 | -49.2 | +54.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Genta Takeuchi | 14% | 1% | 14% | 71% | -12.2 | -1.8 | +46.9 | -33.0 |