Game · 2024-25 Finals
5/12 Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+52.4pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Setokuma Naoki ron 3,900 from Takeuchi Genta, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +46.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Takeuchi Genta 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Takeuchi Genta Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 25% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -21.6 | -0.1 | +22.0 | -0.3 |
| East 2 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 7,800 | 11% | 25% | 41% | 23% | -7.2 | +19.8 | -7.3 | -5.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 5,200 from Watanabe Futoshi | 9% | 38% | 34% | 19% | -10.1 | -2.6 | +13.0 | -0.3 |
| East 3 | Mizuhara Akina ron 2,600 from Setokuma Naoki | 5% | 34% | 43% | 18% | -0.7 | +8.1 | -6.9 | -0.6 |
| East 4 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 8,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 6% | 41% | 36% | 17% | +18.2 | -19.0 | +4.5 | -3.6 |
| South 1 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 12,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 11% | 26% | 45% | 18% | +38.9 | -36.9 | -0.7 | -1.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 35% | 9% | 43% | 14% | -21.5 | -10.1 | +37.5 | -5.8 |
| South 2 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 2,000 | 5% | 2% | 88% | 5% | +5.6 | -5.8 | +1.8 | -1.6 |
| South 3 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 4,000 | 4% | 0% | 93% | 3% | +0.6 | +9.7 | -1.7 | -8.5 |
| South 4 | Takeuchi Genta ron 3,900 from Setokuma Naoki | 1% | 0% | 96% | 3% | -0.6 | -6.9 | -6.4 | +13.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Takeuchi Genta ron 12,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 4% | 0% | 90% | 6% | -4.0 | -1.8 | -49.8 | +55.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 3,900 from Takeuchi Genta | 13% | 1% | 15% | 71% | -11.6 | -1.8 | +46.6 | -33.2 |