Game · 2024-25 Final Series
5/13 Game 2
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+73.9pt). The game was decided in East 1: Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 18,000, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +45.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 18,000 | 26% | 23% | 26% | 26% | +45.0 | -13.5 | -16.5 | -14.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 62% | 13% | 13% | 13% | +23.7 | -8.5 | -7.4 | -7.8 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 85% | 5% | 5% | 5% | -1.2 | -2.0 | -1.2 | +4.3 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 85% | 5% | 5% | 6% | +1.0 | -1.5 | -1.2 | +1.7 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Exhaustive draw | 87% | 2% | 5% | 6% | -2.3 | -0.3 | +4.9 | -2.3 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 83% | 4% | 6% | 7% | +16.4 | +3.0 | -21.5 | +2.1 |
| East 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 96% | 1% | 1% | 2% | -2.0 | -7.4 | +26.3 | -17.0 |
| South 1 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 5,200 from Saki Kurosawa | 96% | 1% | 2% | 1% | -0.7 | -14.3 | +13.3 | +1.7 |
| South 2 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 18,000 | 96% | 0% | 3% | 1% | -7.4 | +41.6 | -17.1 | -17.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,600 from Sayaka Kayamori | 94% | 4% | 2% | 0% | -1.4 | -2.9 | +5.5 | -1.2 |
| South 3 | Taro Suzuki ron 8,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 96% | 0% | 2% | 1% | +1.8 | -18.7 | +5.5 | +11.5 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Taro Suzuki | 99% | 0% | 0% | 1% | +0.3 | +1.1 | +16.8 | -18.1 |