Game · 2024-25 Final Series
5/15 Game 2
Tomohiro Honda finished 1st (+74.1pt). The game was decided in East 4, 1 honba: Tomohiro Honda ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi, which moved Tomohiro Honda's expected points by +27.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Tomohiro Honda ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 26% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +0.1 | +19.0 | -20.2 | +1.1 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 39% | 14% | 25% | -6.4 | +8.6 | +0.2 | -2.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 2,700 | 18% | 46% | 14% | 22% | -1.3 | -6.6 | -3.2 | +11.1 |
| East 3 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 3,900 from Tomohiro Honda | 18% | 41% | 12% | 29% | +13.0 | -9.9 | -3.9 | +0.8 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 32% | 9% | 32% | +1.7 | -1.4 | -4.1 | +3.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 28% | 30% | 8% | 34% | -0.6 | +27.3 | -0.6 | -26.2 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 57% | 6% | 13% | +4.3 | +0.2 | +2.6 | -7.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 4,000 | 28% | 56% | 7% | 10% | -10.2 | +0.8 | -7.5 | +16.9 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 61% | 5% | 18% | -1.4 | -0.7 | +3.9 | -1.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 59% | 6% | 18% | -5.6 | +7.1 | +2.3 | -3.7 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 12,000 from Ken Sonoda | 12% | 68% | 6% | 14% | -1.4 | +26.6 | -23.9 | -1.2 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 94% | 1% | 4% | -2.8 | -2.2 | +2.1 | +3.0 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 2,600 from Ken Sonoda | 1% | 95% | 1% | 4% | +2.5 | +5.7 | -8.5 | +0.3 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 98% | 0% | 2% | -4.2 | -1.5 | +0.7 | +5.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,900 from Tomohiro Honda | 0% | 96% | 0% | 3% | -5.1 | -4.4 | -0.3 | +9.9 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 94% | 0% | 5% | -3.7 | +5.1 | +0.9 | -2.3 |