Game · 2024-25 Finals
5/15 Game 2
Honda Tomohiro finished 1st (+74.1pt). The game was decided in East 4, 1 honba: Honda Tomohiro ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei, which moved Honda Tomohiro's expected points by +28.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Honda Tomohiro ron 8,000 from Sonoda Ken | 26% | 26% | 25% | 23% | -3.7 | +18.5 | -19.2 | +4.3 |
| East 2 | Draw | 21% | 39% | 14% | 26% | -2.8 | +7.8 | -3.8 | -1.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 2,700 | 18% | 46% | 13% | 24% | -0.6 | -6.8 | -2.1 | +9.5 |
| East 3 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 3,900 from Honda Tomohiro | 19% | 39% | 12% | 30% | +12.1 | -8.9 | -3.8 | +0.6 |
| East 4 | Draw | 26% | 32% | 10% | 32% | +2.5 | -4.4 | -2.8 | +4.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 28% | 29% | 8% | 36% | +0.2 | +28.6 | -1.5 | -27.4 |
| South 1 | Draw | 25% | 56% | 7% | 12% | +3.1 | +1.7 | +1.6 | -6.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 4,000 | 26% | 57% | 6% | 10% | -9.9 | -0.3 | -5.9 | +16.2 |
| South 2 | Draw | 17% | 59% | 5% | 18% | -4.4 | +2.6 | +3.8 | -2.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 14% | 62% | 6% | 17% | -2.4 | +4.5 | +2.1 | -4.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Honda Tomohiro ron 12,000 from Sonoda Ken | 12% | 68% | 6% | 14% | -1.8 | +26.9 | -24.4 | -0.7 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Draw | 1% | 95% | 1% | 4% | -3.3 | -2.7 | +2.5 | +3.5 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Honda Tomohiro ron 2,600 from Sonoda Ken | 1% | 94% | 1% | 4% | +3.4 | +6.0 | -9.0 | -0.4 |
| South 4 | Draw | 0% | 98% | 0% | 2% | -5.0 | -1.2 | +1.0 | +5.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 2,900 from Honda Tomohiro | 0% | 97% | 0% | 3% | -4.3 | -5.2 | -0.6 | +10.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Draw | 0% | 94% | 0% | 6% | -4.0 | +5.5 | +0.9 | -2.4 |