Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2024-25 Finals

5/16 Game 2

Daigo Hiroshi finished 1st (+68.9pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Daigo Hiroshi ron 12,000 from Nakabayashi Kei, which moved Daigo Hiroshi's expected points by +35.0.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 3End● Daigo Hiroshi● Hagiwara Masato● Sonoda Ken● Nakabayashi Kei0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Daigo● Hagiwara● Sonoda● Nakabayashi
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultHagiwara Masato
1st-place chance
Sonoda Ken
1st-place chance
Daigo Hiroshi
1st-place chance
Nakabayashi Kei
1st-place chance
Hagiwara Masato
Expected pt change
Sonoda Ken
Expected pt change
Daigo Hiroshi
Expected pt change
Nakabayashi Kei
Expected pt change
East 1Hagiwara Masato ron 3,900 from Daigo Hiroshi25%25%24%25%+9.4+1.8-11.7+0.5
East 1, 1 honbaDaigo Hiroshi ron 3,900 from Nakabayashi Kei32%25%18%26%-0.3-0.3+13.8-13.1
East 2Draw31%25%25%19%-4.6+1.2-3.6+7.0
East 2, 1 honbaDaigo Hiroshi ron 5,200 from Hagiwara Masato28%27%23%23%-14.4-4.5+17.3+1.6
East 3Sonoda Ken tsumo 2,00018%22%35%24%-1.6+9.4-4.7-3.1
East 4Sonoda Ken tsumo 2,00016%30%31%23%-0.3+5.3+2.1-7.1
South 1Sonoda Ken ron 3,900 from Daigo Hiroshi18%33%34%15%-4.9+18.0-12.4-0.7
South 2Draw11%53%22%15%-6.1+4.7-4.4+5.9
South 2, 1 honbaNakabayashi Kei ron 8,000 from Hagiwara Masato8%58%17%17%-22.2-0.7-4.9+27.8
South 3Daigo Hiroshi ron 7,700 from Nakabayashi Kei1%55%11%33%+0.3+0.1+28.1-28.5
South 3, 1 honbaDaigo Hiroshi ron 12,000 from Nakabayashi Kei1%56%30%13%+7.0-12.8+35.0-29.3
South 3, 2 honbaDraw1%22%76%2%+0.9+2.8-0.5-3.2
South 4, 3 honbaDaigo Hiroshi ron 2,600 from Sonoda Ken0%21%78%2%+6.7-11.7+15.9-10.9

All 2024-25 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)