Game · 2024-25 Final Series
5/16 Game 2
Hiroshi Daigo finished 1st (+68.9pt). The game was decided in South 3, 1 honba: Hiroshi Daigo ron 12,000 from Kei Nakabayashi, which moved Hiroshi Daigo's expected points by +36.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Masato Hagiwara ron 3,900 from Hiroshi Daigo | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +9.4 | +0.6 | -10.3 | +0.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 3,900 from Kei Nakabayashi | 32% | 24% | 19% | 25% | -2.3 | -0.8 | +13.3 | -10.2 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 30% | 24% | 27% | 19% | -4.5 | +2.5 | -3.6 | +5.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 5,200 from Masato Hagiwara | 26% | 26% | 25% | 23% | -12.6 | -1.8 | +16.4 | -2.1 |
| East 3 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 2,000 | 19% | 25% | 37% | 20% | -1.8 | +5.0 | -3.9 | +0.7 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 2,000 | 18% | 27% | 33% | 22% | -2.9 | +9.6 | -0.4 | -6.3 |
| South 1 | Ken Sonoda ron 3,900 from Hiroshi Daigo | 16% | 35% | 32% | 17% | -3.3 | +15.9 | -11.0 | -1.6 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 52% | 22% | 15% | -4.5 | +3.9 | -6.0 | +6.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 8% | 57% | 18% | 17% | -23.6 | -0.4 | -3.8 | +27.8 |
| South 3 | Hiroshi Daigo ron 7,700 from Kei Nakabayashi | 1% | 55% | 11% | 33% | -0.1 | +0.9 | +27.5 | -28.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 12,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 1% | 56% | 29% | 14% | +6.3 | -13.8 | +36.6 | -29.2 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 21% | 77% | 2% | +1.8 | +3.7 | -1.8 | -3.8 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 2,600 from Ken Sonoda | 0% | 21% | 77% | 2% | +6.6 | -11.9 | +16.2 | -10.8 |