Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
1/9 Game 2
Takaya Matsugase finished 1st (+56.3pt). The game was decided in East 2: Takaya Matsugase ron 18,000 from Futoshi Watanabe, which moved Takaya Matsugase's expected points by +38.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 24% | 27% | +4.3 | +0.1 | +3.5 | -8.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 3,900 from Kei Nakabayashi | 27% | 25% | 26% | 21% | -4.4 | +14.7 | -10.7 | +0.3 |
| East 2 | Takaya Matsugase ron 18,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 22% | 36% | 21% | 21% | -0.2 | +38.9 | +0.2 | -38.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 4,000 | 15% | 69% | 13% | 3% | -2.1 | -1.7 | -5.2 | +9.1 |
| East 3 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 18,000 | 13% | 71% | 11% | 5% | -14.7 | -17.8 | +44.4 | -11.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 3,900 from Kei Nakabayashi | 8% | 46% | 44% | 3% | +9.0 | +3.3 | -12.3 | +0.1 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 53% | 31% | 4% | -0.6 | -1.4 | -2.2 | +4.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 51% | 31% | 5% | +25.8 | -6.1 | -6.7 | -13.0 |
| South 1 | Hiroshi Daigo ron 2,900 from Kei Nakabayashi | 29% | 45% | 24% | 2% | +10.9 | -1.0 | -10.1 | +0.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 8,000 | 40% | 42% | 17% | 2% | -15.8 | +24.5 | -6.2 | -2.5 |
| South 2 | Hiroshi Daigo ron 8,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 16% | 73% | 10% | 1% | +33.1 | -29.4 | -2.7 | -1.0 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 62% | 29% | 8% | 1% | -2.2 | -4.1 | +4.3 | +2.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 8,000 from Hiroshi Daigo | 61% | 25% | 12% | 1% | -25.1 | +18.8 | -3.9 | +10.2 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 63% | 9% | 2% | -4.2 | +6.5 | -4.6 | +2.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 5,200 from Futoshi Watanabe | 18% | 75% | 4% | 3% | +2.7 | +11.3 | -2.6 | -11.4 |