Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2024-25 Regular Season

1/14 Game 1

Ken Sonoda finished 1st (+66.6pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Ken Sonoda ron 12,000 from Rumi Nikaido, which moved Ken Sonoda's expected points by +47.2.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 3South 2End● Ken Sonoda● Tomohiro Honda● Rumi Nikaido● Mari Takamiya0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Ken● Tomohiro● Rumi● Mari
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultKen Sonoda
1st-place chance
Tomohiro Honda
1st-place chance
Rumi Nikaido
1st-place chance
Mari Takamiya
1st-place chance
Ken Sonoda
Expected pt change
Tomohiro Honda
Expected pt change
Rumi Nikaido
Expected pt change
Mari Takamiya
Expected pt change
East 1Exhaustive draw25%27%25%24%-10.40.0+6.2+4.3
East 2, 1 honbaExhaustive draw19%26%28%27%-1.5+7.2-3.4-2.3
East 2, 2 honbaExhaustive draw17%31%26%26%+6.00.0-2.7-3.3
East 2, 3 honbaExhaustive draw21%31%25%24%+5.3-3.0-4.5+2.1
East 3, 4 honbaKen Sonoda ron 1,000 from Rumi Nikaido24%29%22%26%+19.5-3.1-12.4-3.9
East 4Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,00039%25%14%22%-12.9-12.6-9.3+34.7
East 4, 1 honbaExhaustive draw25%16%9%50%+6.5-3.3-1.4-1.8
South 1, 2 honbaMari Takamiya ron 2,000 from Rumi Nikaido29%14%9%48%-2.9-1.7-8.2+12.7
South 2Tomohiro Honda ron 12,000 from Rumi Nikaido21%9%6%64%-3.1+31.6-21.4-7.0
South 2, 1 honbaExhaustive draw19%29%1%51%-5.4-4.8+3.2+7.0
South 3, 2 honbaKen Sonoda ron 12,000 from Rumi Nikaido15%22%2%61%+47.2-14.2-17.1-15.9
South 4Mari Takamiya ron 1,500 from Rumi Nikaido69%8%0%23%-1.9-1.5-1.7+5.1
South 4, 1 honbaKen Sonoda tsumo 4,00065%6%0%29%+20.6-6.7-0.5-13.5

All 2024-25 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)