Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
1/14 Game 1
Ken Sonoda finished 1st (+66.6pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Ken Sonoda ron 12,000 from Rumi Nikaido, which moved Ken Sonoda's expected points by +47.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 27% | 25% | 24% | -10.4 | 0.0 | +6.2 | +4.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 26% | 28% | 27% | -1.5 | +7.2 | -3.4 | -2.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 31% | 26% | 26% | +6.0 | 0.0 | -2.7 | -3.3 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 31% | 25% | 24% | +5.3 | -3.0 | -4.5 | +2.1 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 1,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 24% | 29% | 22% | 26% | +19.5 | -3.1 | -12.4 | -3.9 |
| East 4 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 12,000 | 39% | 25% | 14% | 22% | -12.9 | -12.6 | -9.3 | +34.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 16% | 9% | 50% | +6.5 | -3.3 | -1.4 | -1.8 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Mari Takamiya ron 2,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 29% | 14% | 9% | 48% | -2.9 | -1.7 | -8.2 | +12.7 |
| South 2 | Tomohiro Honda ron 12,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 21% | 9% | 6% | 64% | -3.1 | +31.6 | -21.4 | -7.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 29% | 1% | 51% | -5.4 | -4.8 | +3.2 | +7.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 12,000 from Rumi Nikaido | 15% | 22% | 2% | 61% | +47.2 | -14.2 | -17.1 | -15.9 |
| South 4 | Mari Takamiya ron 1,500 from Rumi Nikaido | 69% | 8% | 0% | 23% | -1.9 | -1.5 | -1.7 | +5.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 4,000 | 65% | 6% | 0% | 29% | +20.6 | -6.7 | -0.5 | -13.5 |