Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2024-25 Regular Season

1/17 Game 2

Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+55.4pt). The game was decided in East 2: Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +26.9.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 4End● Setokuma Naoki● Watanabe Futoshi● Kayamori Sayaka● Matsugase Takaya0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Setokuma● Watanabe● Kayamori● Matsugase
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultWatanabe Futoshi
1st-place chance
Kayamori Sayaka
1st-place chance
Setokuma Naoki
1st-place chance
Matsugase Takaya
1st-place chance
Watanabe Futoshi
Expected pt change
Kayamori Sayaka
Expected pt change
Setokuma Naoki
Expected pt change
Matsugase Takaya
Expected pt change
East 1Setokuma Naoki ron 3,200 from Matsugase Takaya26%25%24%25%-3.9+0.1+10.9-7.0
East 2Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka22%24%33%21%-0.1-26.7+26.9-0.1
East 3Draw19%8%55%18%+1.7+4.2-1.9-4.0
East 4, 1 honbaWatanabe Futoshi tsumo 5,20020%10%54%16%+20.5-4.1-5.2-11.1
South 1Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 4,00035%9%47%10%-8.0+12.1+2.0-6.1
South 2Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,00028%12%52%9%-8.8-12.8+25.7-4.2
South 3Matsugase Takaya ron 8,000 from Setokuma Naoki7%1%87%4%+3.7-8.5-15.1+19.9
South 4Matsugase Takaya ron 1,500 from Watanabe Futoshi14%1%73%11%-3.8-0.3-0.2+4.3
South 4, 1 honbaDraw11%1%74%14%-5.6+2.2-3.1+6.5
South 4, 2 honbaSetokuma Naoki ron 1,000 from Kayamori Sayaka13%3%69%15%-12.7-9.2+16.3+5.6

All 2024-25 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)