Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
1/17 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+55.4pt). The game was decided in East 2: Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +27.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,200 from Takaya Matsugase | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -0.8 | +0.4 | +8.8 | -8.4 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 24% | 24% | 32% | 21% | -2.1 | -23.9 | +27.5 | -1.5 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 9% | 55% | 17% | +2.3 | +2.8 | -3.3 | -1.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 5,200 | 20% | 10% | 53% | 17% | +20.9 | -6.6 | -3.0 | -11.2 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 4,000 | 35% | 7% | 48% | 9% | -9.9 | +14.5 | +1.2 | -5.8 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 27% | 13% | 51% | 9% | -7.0 | -12.6 | +25.9 | -6.3 |
| South 3 | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 8% | 1% | 87% | 4% | +4.0 | -9.2 | -17.1 | +22.2 |
| South 4 | Takaya Matsugase ron 1,500 from Futoshi Watanabe | 16% | 1% | 71% | 12% | -4.8 | -1.0 | +2.9 | +2.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 1% | 76% | 13% | -4.9 | +1.8 | -4.6 | +7.7 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 14% | 3% | 68% | 16% | -13.4 | -8.2 | +16.7 | +4.9 |