Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
1/21 Game 1
Ken Sonoda finished 1st (+64.3pt). The game was decided in East 2: Ken Sonoda ron 12,000 from Namba Shibukawa, which moved Ken Sonoda's expected points by +34.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 2,000 | 23% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -4.0 | -0.6 | +0.3 | +4.2 |
| East 2 | Ken Sonoda ron 12,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 22% | 25% | 26% | 28% | +0.1 | -4.9 | -29.2 | +34.0 |
| East 3 | Namba Shibukawa ron 1,500 from Ken Sonoda | 17% | 16% | 9% | 58% | +0.7 | +1.5 | +2.6 | -4.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 19% | 10% | 53% | -9.5 | -13.0 | +33.4 | -11.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 14% | 27% | 43% | +34.0 | -8.7 | -18.0 | -7.4 |
| East 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 3,900 | 39% | 10% | 16% | 35% | -2.8 | -4.2 | -5.6 | +12.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 12,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 35% | 7% | 11% | 47% | -3.8 | -22.6 | +1.0 | +25.4 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 21% | 1% | 8% | 71% | +1.7 | -0.2 | -3.4 | +1.9 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 2% | 5% | 71% | -7.1 | +1.5 | +2.8 | +2.8 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 16% | 2% | 6% | 76% | +24.8 | -6.4 | -5.1 | -13.3 |
| South 1 | Masato Hagiwara ron 1,600 from Arisa Date | 38% | 1% | 4% | 58% | -8.1 | +1.7 | +0.9 | +5.5 |
| South 2 | Ken Sonoda ron 3,900 from Arisa Date | 28% | 1% | 4% | 67% | -10.9 | -2.2 | -0.2 | +13.2 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 0% | 3% | 89% | -1.9 | -1.9 | +5.5 | -1.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Arisa Date | 9% | 0% | 5% | 86% | -14.9 | +13.8 | -4.4 | +5.5 |
| South 4 | Ken Sonoda tsumo 3,000 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 99% | -0.7 | -1.9 | -0.6 | +3.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -17.5 | +49.4 | -24.7 | -7.3 |