Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
1/24 Game 2
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+63.2pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Hisato Sasaki ron 18,000 from Takaya Matsugase, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +43.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 7,800 | 24% | 26% | 25% | 26% | +26.1 | -10.3 | -8.0 | -7.9 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 4,000 | 43% | 18% | 19% | 20% | -8.0 | +13.5 | -3.2 | -2.4 |
| East 2 | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 36% | 27% | 18% | 19% | +6.7 | -2.9 | 0.0 | -3.7 |
| East 3 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 6,000 | 43% | 23% | 17% | 17% | -7.5 | -5.0 | +16.8 | -4.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 18,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 36% | 20% | 29% | 15% | -2.3 | -40.8 | +43.1 | 0.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 2,700 | 24% | 3% | 64% | 9% | +10.7 | -4.0 | -5.3 | -1.5 |
| East 4 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 5,200 | 33% | 2% | 57% | 9% | -3.0 | +12.0 | +0.9 | -9.9 |
| South 1 | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 30% | 4% | 61% | 5% | -8.2 | -1.1 | +9.7 | -0.4 |
| South 2 | Takaya Matsugase ron 3,900 from Namba Shibukawa | 17% | 3% | 77% | 4% | -9.3 | +7.8 | +1.8 | -0.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 3,200 | 11% | 4% | 81% | 4% | -0.5 | -10.4 | +0.1 | +10.8 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 8% | 0% | 85% | 6% | -1.1 | -5.1 | +0.3 | +5.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 4% | 0% | 90% | 6% | +3.8 | -4.7 | +7.0 | -6.1 |