Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
1/31 Game 1
Maki Asami finished 1st (+67.1pt). The game was decided in East 1: Maki Asami tsumo 16,000, which moved Maki Asami's expected points by +42.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Maki Asami 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Maki Asami Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Maki Asami tsumo 16,000 | 23% | 25% | 26% | 26% | -21.7 | -11.4 | +42.5 | -9.4 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 2,000 | 9% | 14% | 61% | 15% | +7.4 | -6.7 | +0.4 | -1.2 |
| East 3 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 12,000 | 11% | 11% | 63% | 15% | +32.0 | -8.5 | -15.9 | -7.6 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 33% | 8% | 45% | 14% | +4.4 | -3.5 | -2.1 | +1.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 3,000 | 36% | 7% | 43% | 13% | -2.0 | -3.0 | -4.3 | +9.4 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 12,000 | 36% | 7% | 39% | 17% | +33.1 | -5.5 | -10.8 | -16.9 |
| South 1 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 5,200 | 72% | 3% | 20% | 5% | -3.6 | -6.1 | -6.0 | +15.6 |
| South 2 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000 | 72% | 3% | 16% | 10% | -8.4 | -13.6 | -12.1 | +34.1 |
| South 3 | Maki Asami ron 12,000 from Shingo Hori | 58% | 0% | 9% | 33% | -8.6 | -12.2 | +30.1 | -9.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Maki Asami ron 5,800 from Masato Hagiwara | 44% | 0% | 31% | 26% | -23.7 | -0.3 | +23.9 | +0.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Maki Asami ron 2,900 from Masato Hagiwara | 14% | 0% | 63% | 23% | -13.9 | 0.0 | +12.5 | +1.4 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 5,200 | 3% | 0% | 80% | 17% | -5.9 | -1.0 | -9.7 | +16.6 |
| South 4 | Maki Asami tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 0% | 68% | 31% | -2.4 | -0.5 | +17.7 | -14.8 |