Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
2/3 Game 1
Saki Kurosawa finished 1st (+70.9pt). The game was decided in East 2: Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara, which moved Saki Kurosawa's expected points by +28.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Saki Kurosawa ron 5,200 from Kenji Katsumata | 24% | 24% | 26% | 26% | +0.3 | +0.5 | -14.1 | +13.3 |
| East 2 | Saki Kurosawa ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 24% | 25% | 17% | 35% | -23.3 | -4.5 | -0.3 | +28.1 |
| East 3 | Akina Mizuhara ron 1,000 from Arisa Date | 9% | 16% | 14% | 61% | +1.8 | -2.4 | -2.1 | +2.8 |
| East 4 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 3,900 | 9% | 15% | 11% | 66% | -4.0 | -1.5 | -2.9 | +8.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 6% | 11% | 8% | 74% | -3.6 | +3.8 | +1.5 | -1.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 13% | 8% | 74% | +7.0 | -3.8 | +0.1 | -3.4 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 2,700 | 8% | 11% | 10% | 71% | -7.4 | -3.5 | -4.2 | +15.1 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 6% | 5% | 88% | -7.2 | -17.6 | +24.7 | +0.1 |
| South 3 | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 1% | 0% | 8% | 92% | +30.5 | -8.0 | -26.3 | +3.8 |
| South 4 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 6,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -1.8 | -1.6 | -2.6 | +5.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 1,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | +10.1 | -7.5 | 0.0 | -2.6 |