Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
2/3 Game 2
Matsugase Takaya finished 1st (+66.5pt). The game was decided in South 2: Matsugase Takaya tsumo 18,000, which moved Matsugase Takaya's expected points by +59.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Takamiya Mari 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Takamiya Mari Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hagiwara Masato ron 1,500 from Matsugase Takaya | 25% | 25% | 24% | 27% | +4.3 | -4.0 | +1.0 | -1.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 6,000 | 27% | 23% | 25% | 25% | +15.8 | -5.2 | -4.4 | -6.2 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Draw | 40% | 18% | 21% | 21% | -1.1 | -1.9 | +4.8 | -1.8 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Draw | 39% | 18% | 24% | 20% | -6.2 | +3.5 | +5.7 | -3.0 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 2,700 | 33% | 20% | 29% | 18% | -3.6 | -6.9 | +13.6 | -3.2 |
| East 3 | Takamiya Mari tsumo 8,000 | 29% | 15% | 39% | 17% | -2.1 | -7.8 | -13.7 | +23.7 |
| East 4 | Hagiwara Masato ron 3,900 from Nakabayashi Kei | 29% | 11% | 27% | 33% | +13.0 | +0.7 | -13.3 | -0.4 |
| South 1 | Matsugase Takaya ron 5,200 from Hagiwara Masato | 41% | 12% | 17% | 30% | -19.2 | +14.6 | +3.0 | +1.6 |
| South 2 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 18,000 | 23% | 20% | 22% | 34% | -19.3 | +59.7 | -19.4 | -21.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 2,900 from Takamiya Mari | 4% | 79% | 6% | 10% | +2.1 | +7.4 | +1.6 | -11.1 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Draw | 3% | 87% | 6% | 5% | -1.8 | +0.9 | -6.1 | +7.0 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 1,100 | 1% | 91% | 3% | 5% | +12.3 | +1.8 | -9.0 | -5.1 |
| South 4 | Draw | 1% | 95% | 0% | 4% | +6.5 | +3.7 | -5.7 | -4.5 |