Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
2/3 Game 2
Takaya Matsugase finished 1st (+66.5pt). The game was decided in South 2: Takaya Matsugase tsumo 18,000, which moved Takaya Matsugase's expected points by +60.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Mari Takamiya 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Mari Takamiya Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Masato Hagiwara ron 1,500 from Takaya Matsugase | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | +4.0 | -1.7 | -2.4 | +0.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 6,000 | 28% | 22% | 23% | 26% | +14.3 | -2.8 | -5.5 | -6.1 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 38% | 21% | 20% | 21% | -2.8 | -4.8 | +9.2 | -1.5 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 35% | 18% | 27% | 21% | -2.6 | +4.6 | +1.2 | -3.2 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 2,700 | 34% | 21% | 27% | 19% | -1.8 | -7.5 | +14.2 | -4.9 |
| East 3 | Mari Takamiya tsumo 8,000 | 33% | 14% | 37% | 16% | -5.6 | -4.7 | -13.3 | +23.7 |
| East 4 | Masato Hagiwara ron 3,900 from Kei Nakabayashi | 29% | 13% | 26% | 32% | +12.8 | -2.9 | -9.9 | 0.0 |
| South 1 | Takaya Matsugase ron 5,200 from Masato Hagiwara | 39% | 12% | 19% | 30% | -15.6 | +15.2 | -1.6 | +2.0 |
| South 2 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 18,000 | 26% | 20% | 21% | 33% | -22.3 | +60.9 | -18.2 | -20.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,900 from Mari Takamiya | 4% | 80% | 6% | 10% | +2.4 | +8.5 | +0.5 | -11.5 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 89% | 4% | 4% | -0.3 | -1.4 | -5.8 | +7.4 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 1,100 | 2% | 91% | 3% | 5% | +11.6 | +1.5 | -8.6 | -4.4 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 95% | 0% | 4% | +6.0 | +3.9 | -4.8 | -5.2 |