Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
2/7 Game 2
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+57.7pt). The game was decided in South 4: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +45.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 25% | 25% | 27% | -18.0 | -6.9 | +34.0 | -9.1 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,000 from Shingo Hori | 13% | 19% | 49% | 19% | +0.3 | -5.8 | +1.8 | +3.6 |
| East 3 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 2,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 12% | 14% | 52% | 21% | +5.3 | +2.7 | -6.5 | -1.4 |
| East 4 | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 4,000 | 15% | 16% | 48% | 21% | +11.8 | -5.5 | +1.5 | -7.8 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 13% | 50% | 15% | -15.3 | -8.7 | -7.1 | +31.1 |
| South 2 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 3,900 from Sayaka Kayamori | 12% | 9% | 41% | 38% | +13.1 | -6.3 | -12.9 | +6.1 |
| South 3 | Shingo Hori tsumo 8,000 | 19% | 6% | 28% | 47% | -10.6 | +53.2 | -29.9 | -12.6 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 48% | 10% | 27% | -11.2 | -24.9 | -9.8 | +45.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Shingo Hori ron 1,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 1% | 3% | 1% | 95% | +3.1 | +8.2 | -10.8 | -0.4 |