Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
2/7 Game 2
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+57.7pt). The game was decided in South 4: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +47.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Hori Shingo Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 25% | 26% | 24% | -17.8 | -6.9 | +31.1 | -6.4 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki ron 1,000 from Hori Shingo | 13% | 19% | 52% | 17% | +1.5 | -6.5 | +1.1 | +3.9 |
| East 3 | Takizawa Kazunori ron 2,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 14% | 15% | 51% | 20% | +3.4 | +1.3 | -6.8 | +2.1 |
| East 4 | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 4,000 | 15% | 16% | 46% | 23% | +13.5 | -3.6 | +2.1 | -12.0 |
| South 1 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 24% | 13% | 50% | 14% | -18.1 | -8.0 | -7.4 | +33.4 |
| South 2 | Takizawa Kazunori ron 3,900 from Kayamori Sayaka | 10% | 11% | 40% | 40% | +17.3 | -6.8 | -14.3 | +3.8 |
| South 3 | Hori Shingo tsumo 8,000 | 23% | 6% | 26% | 45% | -12.1 | +53.2 | -28.4 | -12.7 |
| South 4 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 48% | 10% | 25% | -12.0 | -26.0 | -9.7 | +47.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hori Shingo ron 1,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 1% | 2% | 0% | 96% | +3.1 | +8.5 | -10.5 | -1.2 |