Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
2/10 Game 1
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+54.2pt). The game was decided in South 4: Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +59.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Taro Suzuki ron 3,900 from Arisa Date | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +10.4 | -1.5 | +1.2 | -10.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 2,600 from Arisa Date | 32% | 22% | 25% | 20% | -2.0 | +9.4 | -1.0 | -6.4 |
| East 2 | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 5,800 from Taro Suzuki | 30% | 30% | 24% | 16% | -15.4 | +13.9 | +1.7 | -0.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 40% | 26% | 16% | -9.2 | +32.7 | -14.3 | -9.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 71% | 12% | 8% | -7.0 | +0.8 | +3.8 | +2.3 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 6% | 72% | 14% | 9% | +0.3 | +1.8 | -22.3 | +20.2 |
| East 3 | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 2,000 | 6% | 75% | 6% | 13% | -1.3 | +5.1 | -2.6 | -1.2 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 81% | 3% | 11% | -1.9 | +6.2 | -1.8 | -2.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 89% | 2% | 6% | +4.3 | -3.0 | +2.6 | -4.0 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 8,000 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 4% | 87% | 3% | 6% | -6.3 | -14.7 | -3.7 | +24.7 |
| South 2 | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 2,900 from Taro Suzuki | 2% | 72% | 4% | 22% | -5.8 | +5.7 | +0.1 | +0.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 12,000 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 1% | 78% | 2% | 19% | -6.6 | -32.1 | +31.2 | +7.6 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 43% | 15% | 40% | -1.7 | -5.9 | +10.2 | -2.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 1,100 | 2% | 35% | 23% | 39% | -3.7 | +2.1 | -10.1 | +11.7 |
| South 4 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 35% | 12% | 52% | -4.1 | -11.7 | +59.6 | -43.8 |