Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
2/11 Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+52.6pt). The game was decided in East 4: Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Matsugase Takaya, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +33.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Daigo Hiroshi 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Daigo Hiroshi Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 12,000 | 24% | 25% | 26% | 25% | +32.7 | -9.7 | -13.8 | -9.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 1,300 from Ooi Takaharu | 49% | 17% | 16% | 18% | -3.8 | -2.2 | +0.7 | +5.3 |
| East 2 | Matsugase Takaya ron 2,000 from Setokuma Naoki | 46% | 16% | 16% | 22% | -0.1 | -1.7 | +7.7 | -5.9 |
| East 3 | Daigo Hiroshi ron 2,600 from Ooi Takaharu | 49% | 14% | 20% | 18% | -5.6 | +8.3 | -2.4 | -0.3 |
| East 4 | Setokuma Naoki ron 12,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 43% | 20% | 19% | 18% | -0.3 | -1.9 | -31.2 | +33.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Daigo Hiroshi tsumo 5,200 | 39% | 15% | 5% | 41% | -4.0 | +18.2 | -4.7 | -9.5 |
| South 1 | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Daigo Hiroshi | 35% | 29% | 4% | 32% | -6.6 | -25.6 | +2.0 | +30.2 |
| South 2 | Matsugase Takaya ron 8,000 from Daigo Hiroshi | 21% | 9% | 4% | 66% | +2.1 | -27.9 | +21.5 | +4.3 |
| South 3 | Draw | 19% | 0% | 7% | 73% | -2.3 | -2.2 | +7.0 | -2.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 7,700 from Ooi Takaharu | 19% | 1% | 10% | 70% | -27.2 | -0.2 | +26.1 | +1.3 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Draw | 5% | 1% | 21% | 73% | -2.0 | +2.2 | -6.1 | +5.9 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Daigo Hiroshi tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 0% | 9% | 88% | -23.9 | +25.8 | -1.1 | -0.8 |