Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
2/11 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+52.6pt). The game was decided in East 4: Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Takaya Matsugase, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +33.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 27% | 25% | 23% | +31.4 | -10.9 | -13.2 | -7.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 1,300 from Takaharu Ooi | 49% | 18% | 15% | 17% | -4.5 | -1.3 | +1.2 | +4.6 |
| East 2 | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,000 from Naoki Setokuma | 46% | 17% | 16% | 21% | +0.7 | -4.1 | +7.9 | -4.5 |
| East 3 | Hiroshi Daigo ron 2,600 from Takaharu Ooi | 48% | 13% | 21% | 18% | -4.3 | +9.5 | -4.4 | -0.8 |
| East 4 | Naoki Setokuma ron 12,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 45% | 18% | 18% | 19% | -2.5 | -2.7 | -28.2 | +33.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 5,200 | 38% | 16% | 5% | 41% | -3.7 | +19.4 | -4.1 | -11.7 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Hiroshi Daigo | 35% | 30% | 5% | 30% | -5.4 | -25.7 | -0.9 | +31.9 |
| South 2 | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Hiroshi Daigo | 22% | 9% | 3% | 66% | +1.8 | -28.6 | +21.6 | +5.2 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 0% | 6% | 73% | -1.6 | -1.8 | +6.8 | -3.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 7,700 from Takaharu Ooi | 21% | 1% | 10% | 69% | -27.3 | -0.4 | +25.8 | +2.0 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 1% | 20% | 74% | -2.9 | +2.0 | -4.0 | +4.9 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 0% | 11% | 86% | -24.1 | +26.4 | -2.3 | 0.0 |