Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
2/17 Game 1
Yoshihiro Matsumoto finished 1st (+52.3pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Exhaustive draw, which moved Yoshihiro Matsumoto's expected points by +16.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yu Suzuki 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Hiroe Sugawara 1st-place chance | Yu Suzuki Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Hiroe Sugawara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +4.8 | -3.1 | +1.3 | -3.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 1,300 from Yu Suzuki | 28% | 23% | 25% | 23% | -12.2 | -0.4 | +11.8 | +0.9 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 23% | 35% | 24% | +1.0 | +0.4 | -4.7 | +3.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 23% | 31% | 26% | +0.3 | +4.8 | -7.8 | +2.7 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 1,300 from Yu Suzuki | 19% | 26% | 26% | 28% | -5.2 | -3.6 | +7.6 | +1.3 |
| East 3 | Ken Sonoda ron 1,000 from Yu Suzuki | 18% | 23% | 31% | 29% | -1.2 | +3.4 | -0.5 | -1.7 |
| East 4 | Yu Suzuki ron 2,000 from Ken Sonoda | 16% | 25% | 31% | 27% | +3.9 | -4.9 | +0.1 | +0.9 |
| South 1 | Yu Suzuki tsumo 3,900 | 19% | 22% | 30% | 28% | +12.5 | -3.7 | -3.4 | -5.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,600 from Ken Sonoda | 27% | 20% | 28% | 25% | -0.6 | -11.5 | +9.7 | +2.4 |
| South 2 | Ken Sonoda ron 7,700 from Yu Suzuki | 25% | 15% | 34% | 27% | -27.6 | +27.6 | +1.4 | -1.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 5,800 from Hiroe Sugawara | 8% | 30% | 37% | 25% | +1.6 | +22.9 | -1.4 | -23.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 1,300 from Yu Suzuki | 7% | 52% | 30% | 10% | -7.3 | +2.9 | +4.9 | -0.5 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 57% | 31% | 9% | -1.5 | -5.0 | +7.3 | -0.7 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hiroe Sugawara ron 8,000 from Ken Sonoda | 3% | 49% | 40% | 8% | -10.2 | -33.1 | +12.6 | +30.7 |
| South 4 | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 2,100 | 1% | 10% | 70% | 20% | -0.4 | -5.9 | -2.9 | +9.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 10% | 65% | 25% | -4.4 | -3.8 | +16.3 | -8.1 |