Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
2/17 Game 2
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+61.8pt). The game was decided in South 3: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +44.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance | Taro Suzuki 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change | Taro Suzuki Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Taro Suzuki ron 1,000 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -1.0 | -4.7 | +6.4 | -0.7 |
| East 2 | Taro Suzuki tsumo 16,000 | 23% | 22% | 29% | 26% | -9.9 | -23.8 | +44.0 | -10.3 |
| East 3 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 12% | 6% | 68% | 14% | -4.7 | -7.5 | -9.5 | +21.7 |
| East 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 11% | 4% | 58% | 27% | -9.8 | -7.4 | -15.1 | +32.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 5% | 2% | 34% | 58% | -2.2 | -0.4 | +7.3 | -4.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 5,800 from Kei Nakabayashi | 5% | 2% | 41% | 52% | +14.6 | -3.3 | +3.9 | -15.2 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Taro Suzuki tsumo 2,000 | 9% | 2% | 52% | 36% | -7.7 | -2.2 | +11.6 | -1.7 |
| South 2 | Sho Shiratori ron 8,000 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 3% | 1% | 66% | 30% | +16.5 | -13.5 | +1.2 | -4.2 |
| South 3 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 7% | 0% | 69% | 24% | -9.6 | -2.6 | -32.5 | +44.8 |
| South 4 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 0% | 7% | 92% | +6.6 | -1.7 | -2.9 | -2.0 |