Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
2/18 Game 1
Aki Nikaido finished 1st (+58.0pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Aki Nikaido ron 6,400 from Masato Hagiwara, which moved Aki Nikaido's expected points by +38.4.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Takaki Asai 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Takaki Asai Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 26% | 25% | 24% | -16.4 | +33.0 | -9.8 | -6.8 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 51% | 17% | 19% | +2.3 | +3.0 | -1.4 | -3.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 3,000 | 14% | 54% | 15% | 17% | -3.7 | +10.4 | -4.0 | -2.6 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 5,200 | 10% | 64% | 12% | 14% | +14.7 | -7.5 | -3.1 | -4.1 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 57% | 12% | 13% | -1.2 | +2.3 | -1.5 | +0.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Takaki Asai | 16% | 60% | 12% | 13% | +27.5 | -0.5 | -6.9 | -20.1 |
| East 4 | Takaki Asai ron 7,700 from Masato Hagiwara | 33% | 56% | 6% | 5% | -0.9 | -0.3 | -18.9 | +20.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Takaki Asai | 32% | 55% | 2% | 10% | +0.6 | +2.6 | +20.9 | -24.1 |
| South 1 | Takaki Asai ron 1,300 from Namba Shibukawa | 32% | 59% | 6% | 3% | +0.7 | -1.4 | -1.1 | +1.8 |
| South 2 | Takaki Asai tsumo 8,000 | 33% | 59% | 5% | 3% | -1.5 | -7.1 | -10.1 | +18.6 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 35% | 54% | 4% | 8% | +3.0 | -5.1 | +4.1 | -2.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 1,300 from Masato Hagiwara | 40% | 46% | 7% | 8% | -5.3 | +19.1 | -10.5 | -3.4 |
| South 4 | Takaki Asai ron 7,700 from Namba Shibukawa | 20% | 76% | 0% | 4% | +14.0 | -29.5 | -3.2 | +18.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 57% | 29% | 0% | 14% | -14.1 | +7.7 | +2.0 | +4.4 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Aki Nikaido ron 6,400 from Masato Hagiwara | 33% | 48% | 1% | 18% | +38.4 | -15.6 | -9.2 | -13.6 |