Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
2/18 Game 1
Nikaido Aki finished 1st (+58.0pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Nikaido Aki ron 6,400 from Hagiwara Masato, which moved Nikaido Aki's expected points by +38.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Asai Takaki 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Asai Takaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 12,000 | 23% | 25% | 28% | 24% | -14.7 | +34.0 | -13.0 | -6.3 |
| East 2 | Draw | 13% | 50% | 18% | 19% | +2.5 | +3.1 | -2.1 | -3.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 3,000 | 14% | 53% | 16% | 17% | -3.5 | +11.7 | -4.0 | -4.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 5,200 | 10% | 65% | 12% | 13% | +11.8 | -5.3 | -5.0 | -1.4 |
| East 3 | Draw | 15% | 61% | 11% | 13% | +2.2 | -1.7 | -1.0 | +0.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Asai Takaki | 17% | 59% | 11% | 13% | +26.7 | -1.1 | -6.3 | -19.3 |
| East 4 | Asai Takaki ron 7,700 from Hagiwara Masato | 34% | 55% | 6% | 6% | -1.2 | -0.6 | -17.2 | +19.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 8,000 from Asai Takaki | 33% | 53% | 3% | 10% | +2.1 | +3.5 | +18.8 | -24.4 |
| South 1 | Asai Takaki ron 1,300 from Shibukawa Namba | 33% | 59% | 5% | 3% | -0.7 | -1.9 | +0.8 | +1.8 |
| South 2 | Asai Takaki tsumo 8,000 | 33% | 58% | 6% | 3% | -1.9 | -6.6 | -9.0 | +17.5 |
| South 3 | Draw | 33% | 54% | 6% | 7% | +5.2 | -6.4 | +2.7 | -1.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 1,300 from Hagiwara Masato | 43% | 43% | 6% | 8% | -7.2 | +20.4 | -11.3 | -1.8 |
| South 4 | Asai Takaki ron 7,700 from Shibukawa Namba | 20% | 76% | 0% | 4% | +15.6 | -29.6 | -2.5 | +16.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 60% | 28% | 0% | 13% | -14.9 | +8.5 | +1.8 | +4.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Nikaido Aki ron 6,400 from Hagiwara Masato | 34% | 47% | 1% | 17% | +38.1 | -15.7 | -9.6 | -12.9 |