Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
2/18 Game 2
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+105.7pt). The game was decided in East 2: Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +30.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 26% | 26% | 26% | +5.1 | +0.4 | -4.3 | -1.2 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 1,300 from Namba Shibukawa | 27% | 25% | 22% | 25% | -9.6 | +12.6 | -2.5 | -0.4 |
| East 2 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 20% | 34% | 20% | 26% | -11.8 | +30.1 | -5.3 | -13.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 61% | 15% | 14% | -5.8 | +25.9 | -12.2 | -8.0 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 18,000 | 4% | 85% | 5% | 5% | -7.6 | +23.9 | -7.3 | -8.9 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 1,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 1% | 96% | 1% | 1% | -5.0 | -0.3 | -0.6 | +5.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 98% | 1% | 1% | +1.8 | +2.6 | -2.9 | -1.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 1,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 1% | 98% | 0% | 1% | -1.1 | +2.9 | -1.8 | +0.1 |
| South 1 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 99% | 0% | 0% | +26.8 | -4.8 | -10.4 | -11.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 98% | 0% | 0% | -4.3 | -0.5 | +7.1 | -2.3 |
| South 2 | Tomohiro Honda ron 2,600 from Kenji Katsumata | 0% | 99% | 0% | 0% | +1.7 | -1.2 | -9.3 | +8.9 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 99% | 0% | 0% | -2.5 | -0.5 | +0.2 | +2.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 2,700 | 0% | 99% | 0% | 0% | +2.8 | +6.0 | -7.6 | -1.2 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 8,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | +5.2 | +8.6 | -10.9 | -3.0 |