Game · 2024-25 Regular Season

2/18 Game 2

Kayamori Sayaka finished 1st (+105.7pt). The game was decided in East 2: Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000, which moved Kayamori Sayaka's expected points by +29.5.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance	Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance	Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance	Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance	Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change	Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change	Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change	Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change
East 1	Draw	24%	25%	26%	25%	+4.6	+2.8	-5.0	-2.4
East 1, 1 honba	Kayamori Sayaka ron 1,300 from Shibukawa Namba	27%	25%	23%	25%	-11.5	+12.5	-2.0	+1.0
East 2	Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000	18%	35%	22%	26%	-7.5	+29.5	-7.2	-14.8
East 2, 1 honba	Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000	12%	62%	14%	13%	-8.7	+24.2	-10.4	-5.1
East 2, 2 honba	Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 18,000	4%	84%	6%	6%	-7.4	+24.5	-8.5	-8.6
East 2, 3 honba	Honda Tomohiro ron 1,000 from Shibukawa Namba	1%	97%	1%	2%	-4.3	-1.2	+0.7	+4.8
East 3	Draw	1%	97%	1%	1%	+0.9	+3.3	-3.6	-0.5
East 4, 1 honba	Kayamori Sayaka ron 1,000 from Katsumata Kenji	0%	98%	1%	1%	-1.0	+3.0	-1.1	-0.9
South 1	Shibukawa Namba tsumo 12,000	0%	99%	0%	0%	+27.9	-4.4	-12.6	-10.8
South 1, 1 honba	Katsumata Kenji tsumo 4,000	1%	99%	0%	0%	-5.0	-0.5	+8.8	-3.3
South 2	Honda Tomohiro ron 2,600 from Katsumata Kenji	0%	99%	0%	0%	+2.1	-0.8	-10.8	+9.5
South 3	Draw	0%	100%	0%	0%	-2.6	-1.1	+1.2	+2.5
South 3, 1 honba	Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 2,700	0%	100%	0%	0%	+2.6	+6.2	-7.6	-1.2
South 4	Kayamori Sayaka ron 8,000 from Katsumata Kenji	0%	100%	0%	0%	+5.0	+8.4	-10.7	-2.7

All 2024-25 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)