Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
2/24 Game 2
Arisa Date finished 1st (+52.2pt). The game was decided in South 1: Arisa Date tsumo 12,000, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +41.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Takaki Asai 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Takaki Asai Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 23% | 27% | 26% | -5.6 | +6.1 | -5.6 | +5.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 2,000 | 20% | 28% | 22% | 29% | 0.0 | -6.6 | -0.6 | +7.2 |
| East 3 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 4,000 | 21% | 21% | 23% | 35% | -4.8 | +15.3 | -7.9 | -2.5 |
| East 4 | Takaharu Ooi ron 1,600 from Aki Nikaido | 18% | 34% | 16% | 32% | 0.0 | +6.4 | -0.2 | -6.1 |
| South 1 | Arisa Date tsumo 12,000 | 17% | 40% | 16% | 26% | +41.5 | -14.2 | -11.3 | -16.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 2,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 52% | 24% | 10% | 14% | +8.8 | -10.6 | +0.5 | +1.2 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Takaki Asai ron 2,300 from Arisa Date | 62% | 15% | 9% | 14% | -8.0 | +0.5 | +10.0 | -2.5 |
| South 2 | Takaharu Ooi ron 5,800 from Aki Nikaido | 55% | 18% | 13% | 15% | -2.8 | +21.5 | -4.5 | -14.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 50% | 31% | 10% | 8% | +1.2 | -17.7 | -9.7 | +26.2 |
| South 3 | Aki Nikaido ron 3,900 from Takaharu Ooi | 55% | 16% | 9% | 20% | +7.9 | -17.6 | -6.9 | +16.6 |
| South 4 | Takaki Asai ron 8,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 70% | 5% | 1% | 24% | +13.9 | -27.6 | +20.7 | -7.0 |