Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
3/3 Game 1
Masato Hagiwara finished 1st (+67.9pt). The game was decided in South 2: Masato Hagiwara tsumo 18,000, which moved Masato Hagiwara's expected points by +65.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 26% | 25% | -5.4 | +3.2 | -5.5 | +7.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 8,000 | 20% | 28% | 23% | 30% | +30.0 | -15.4 | -6.5 | -8.1 |
| East 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,900 from Namba Shibukawa | 45% | 14% | 18% | 23% | -7.1 | 0.0 | +9.1 | -1.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa ron 2,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 38% | 17% | 24% | 22% | +5.1 | +0.6 | -8.3 | +2.5 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 42% | 16% | 18% | 24% | +0.1 | -2.9 | -2.3 | +5.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 4,000 | 42% | 14% | 16% | 27% | -2.5 | -2.9 | +14.8 | -9.4 |
| South 1 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 41% | 14% | 25% | 21% | -7.0 | -2.3 | +10.0 | -0.8 |
| South 2 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 18,000 | 34% | 12% | 34% | 21% | -25.4 | +65.1 | -22.8 | -16.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 12,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 9% | 71% | 12% | 8% | -31.6 | +22.5 | +4.7 | +4.4 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 0% | 90% | 6% | 4% | -4.3 | +0.3 | -0.3 | +4.3 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 93% | 4% | 3% | -2.4 | +4.8 | +0.2 | -2.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 98% | 0% | 2% | +1.1 | -1.5 | -4.1 | +4.6 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 97% | 0% | 3% | -6.8 | -8.3 | -16.9 | +32.0 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 3,900 from Hisato Sasaki | 0% | 88% | 0% | 12% | -1.1 | +5.2 | +6.6 | -10.7 |