Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
3/3 Game 1
Hagiwara Masato finished 1st (+67.9pt). The game was decided in South 2: Hagiwara Masato tsumo 18,000, which moved Hagiwara Masato's expected points by +63.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 25% | 27% | 24% | -4.8 | +2.5 | -5.3 | +7.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 8,000 | 21% | 26% | 23% | 30% | +28.3 | -14.2 | -5.2 | -8.9 |
| East 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 2,900 from Shibukawa Namba | 43% | 15% | 19% | 23% | -8.5 | +1.6 | +8.3 | -1.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Shibukawa Namba ron 2,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 36% | 17% | 24% | 23% | +9.9 | -0.3 | -8.3 | -1.2 |
| East 4 | Draw | 46% | 16% | 17% | 21% | -1.4 | -0.8 | -5.2 | +7.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 4,000 | 43% | 18% | 14% | 25% | -3.6 | -5.1 | +17.3 | -8.5 |
| South 1 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 2,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 41% | 15% | 24% | 20% | -6.9 | -3.3 | +7.8 | +2.4 |
| South 2 | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 18,000 | 33% | 12% | 32% | 23% | -23.5 | +63.7 | -19.9 | -20.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 12,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 11% | 68% | 13% | 8% | -33.2 | +24.2 | +3.0 | +6.0 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 1,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 0% | 91% | 4% | 4% | -3.7 | +0.4 | +1.1 | +2.2 |
| South 3 | Draw | 0% | 93% | 4% | 2% | -3.7 | +4.4 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 0% | 98% | 0% | 2% | +1.2 | -1.4 | -3.6 | +3.8 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 97% | 0% | 2% | -6.2 | -8.4 | -16.8 | +31.5 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 3,900 from Sasaki Hisato | 0% | 88% | 0% | 12% | -1.1 | +5.2 | +6.4 | -10.5 |