Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2024-25 Regular Season

3/4 Game 2

Sonoda Ken finished 1st (+95.2pt). The game was decided in East 2: Sonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Nakada Kana, which moved Sonoda Ken's expected points by +24.7.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1South 4End● Sonoda Ken● Nakada Kana● Katsumata Kenji● Suzuki Yu0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 2End● Sonoda● Nakada● Katsumata● Suzuki
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultNakada Kana
1st-place chance
Katsumata Kenji
1st-place chance
Suzuki Yu
1st-place chance
Sonoda Ken
1st-place chance
Nakada Kana
Expected pt change
Katsumata Kenji
Expected pt change
Suzuki Yu
Expected pt change
Sonoda Ken
Expected pt change
East 1Sonoda Ken tsumo 8,00023%26%26%25%-13.5-6.7-3.8+24.1
East 2Sonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Nakada Kana14%20%22%44%-21.0-2.2-1.5+24.7
East 3Nakada Kana tsumo 8,0004%13%16%66%+23.0-4.2-17.6-1.2
East 4Sonoda Ken tsumo 3,90012%12%8%68%-1.6-3.8-1.4+6.8
East 4, 1 honbaNakada Kana ron 2,600 from Suzuki Yu9%9%6%75%+5.5-0.3-7.0+1.8
South 1Draw9%7%4%80%+3.9-0.3-1.0-2.5
South 1, 1 honbaSuzuki Yu tsumo 8,00011%8%4%76%-13.6-8.9+22.5+0.1
South 2Katsumata Kenji tsumo 12,0004%6%10%80%-11.5+35.7-13.7-10.5
South 2, 1 honbaSuzuki Yu ron 2,600 from Nakada Kana3%23%7%67%-10.7-5.4+12.1+4.0
South 3Suzuki Yu tsumo 1,5001%14%11%74%-0.7-2.6+4.8-1.5
South 3, 1 honbaSonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Nakada Kana1%13%13%73%-13.5-1.1-5.8+20.3
South 4Sonoda Ken tsumo 9,6000%1%1%99%-4.3-3.5-3.2+11.0
South 4, 1 honbaSonoda Ken tsumo 6,0000%0%0%100%-2.2-1.6-2.4+6.2
South 4, 2 honbaSonoda Ken ron 12,000 from Katsumata Kenji0%0%0%100%+1.4-26.7+12.6+12.7
South 4, 3 honbaDraw0%0%0%100%-0.6-1.1-0.9+2.5
South 4, 4 honbaKatsumata Kenji tsumo 1,1000%0%0%100%-2.9+4.2+2.3-3.6

All 2024-25 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)