Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
3/6 Game 2
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+66.0pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Kurosawa Saki, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +32.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Daigo Hiroshi 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Daigo Hiroshi Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 2,000 | 23% | 24% | 26% | 27% | -4.2 | +9.4 | +0.1 | -5.3 |
| East 2 | Draw | 20% | 31% | 26% | 23% | -4.7 | +1.9 | +1.2 | +1.6 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Kurosawa Saki | 18% | 32% | 26% | 24% | -2.1 | +32.6 | -27.9 | -2.5 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Draw | 12% | 60% | 10% | 18% | +2.7 | -4.0 | -5.7 | +7.0 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 12,000 | 14% | 54% | 9% | 23% | -11.6 | -10.4 | +33.3 | -11.3 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 3,900 | 12% | 47% | 24% | 18% | -4.9 | -4.3 | +13.0 | -3.8 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 5,200 | 10% | 42% | 33% | 15% | -3.0 | +19.4 | -10.5 | -6.0 |
| East 4 | Shiratori Sho ron 5,800 from Daigo Hiroshi | 7% | 63% | 19% | 11% | -12.2 | -0.3 | -0.4 | +13.0 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 5% | 61% | 19% | 15% | +0.8 | +3.0 | -7.5 | +3.7 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 1,300 from Daigo Hiroshi | 5% | 64% | 14% | 17% | -4.6 | +7.6 | +0.1 | -3.0 |
| South 1 | Kurosawa Saki ron 2,000 from Shiratori Sho | 2% | 75% | 11% | 12% | -4.1 | +3.0 | +6.2 | -5.2 |
| South 2 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 5,800 from Kurosawa Saki | 0% | 81% | 12% | 7% | +2.2 | +9.3 | -14.8 | +3.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 2,900 from Shiratori Sho | 0% | 90% | 5% | 6% | +1.0 | +4.5 | +2.3 | -7.9 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 93% | 4% | 3% | -5.9 | -6.4 | +18.2 | -5.9 |
| South 3 | Shiratori Sho ron 3,200 from Nakabayashi Kei | 0% | 89% | 8% | 3% | -2.4 | -1.0 | -4.0 | +7.4 |
| South 4 | Kurosawa Saki ron 2,000 from Shiratori Sho | 0% | 93% | 2% | 5% | -0.6 | +3.3 | +6.0 | -8.6 |