Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
3/6 Game 2
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+66.0pt). The game was decided in East 2, 1 honba: Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Saki Kurosawa, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +34.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 2,000 | 25% | 26% | 25% | 24% | -5.1 | +8.6 | -0.6 | -2.9 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 31% | 26% | 23% | -6.8 | +0.5 | +3.0 | +3.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 17% | 31% | 26% | 26% | -1.2 | +34.2 | -30.6 | -2.3 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 60% | 9% | 19% | +2.5 | -2.2 | -4.0 | +3.6 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 12,000 | 13% | 59% | 7% | 21% | -9.9 | -13.1 | +33.7 | -10.7 |
| East 3, 4 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 3,900 | 11% | 47% | 24% | 19% | -4.3 | -5.1 | +14.2 | -4.8 |
| East 3, 5 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 5,200 | 10% | 41% | 34% | 14% | -5.4 | +22.1 | -12.8 | -3.9 |
| East 4 | Sho Shiratori ron 5,800 from Hiroshi Daigo | 5% | 65% | 18% | 11% | -11.8 | -2.1 | 0.0 | +13.9 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 61% | 19% | 17% | +2.8 | +2.8 | -8.3 | +2.8 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,300 from Hiroshi Daigo | 4% | 65% | 13% | 18% | -4.7 | +7.5 | +1.8 | -4.6 |
| South 1 | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,000 from Sho Shiratori | 3% | 76% | 11% | 10% | -4.6 | +2.3 | +5.5 | -3.2 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 5,800 from Saki Kurosawa | 0% | 80% | 12% | 8% | +0.6 | +10.4 | -13.2 | +2.2 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 2,900 from Sho Shiratori | 0% | 90% | 5% | 5% | +2.4 | +4.3 | +1.5 | -8.3 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 93% | 4% | 3% | -5.6 | -6.9 | +19.0 | -6.5 |
| South 3 | Sho Shiratori ron 3,200 from Kei Nakabayashi | 0% | 89% | 8% | 2% | -2.6 | -0.9 | -5.3 | +8.9 |
| South 4 | Saki Kurosawa ron 2,000 from Sho Shiratori | 0% | 94% | 2% | 5% | -0.8 | +3.2 | +6.3 | -8.8 |