Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
3/7 Game 1
Hisato Sasaki finished 1st (+70.6pt). The game was decided in East 4, 3 honba: Hisato Sasaki ron 5,200 from Hiroe Sugawara, which moved Hisato Sasaki's expected points by +23.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Hiroe Sugawara 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Hiroe Sugawara Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hisato Sasaki ron 8,000 from Shingo Hori | 26% | 25% | 23% | 26% | -2.7 | +19.0 | +2.0 | -18.4 |
| East 2 | Hiroe Sugawara ron 2,600 from Shingo Hori | 22% | 39% | 24% | 15% | +2.1 | +0.1 | +7.1 | -9.3 |
| East 3 | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 6,000 | 24% | 37% | 29% | 11% | -8.1 | -5.2 | +16.9 | -3.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Hiroe Sugawara ron 4,800 from Shingo Hori | 17% | 32% | 42% | 9% | +0.6 | -2.2 | +10.6 | -9.0 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 28% | 52% | 5% | -4.0 | +6.4 | -3.7 | +1.2 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 5,200 from Hiroe Sugawara | 13% | 33% | 48% | 6% | +0.5 | +23.6 | -19.1 | -5.0 |
| South 1 | Shingo Hori ron 8,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 13% | 61% | 24% | 3% | -28.3 | +1.2 | +4.4 | +22.7 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 64% | 27% | 8% | -5.9 | +1.6 | +0.2 | +4.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 9,600 from Hiroe Sugawara | 1% | 64% | 27% | 7% | +3.2 | +23.4 | -28.8 | +2.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 3,000 | 0% | 91% | 5% | 4% | -1.2 | +5.1 | -1.4 | -2.5 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,600 from Hisato Sasaki | 0% | 94% | 4% | 2% | +5.9 | -4.0 | -1.2 | -0.6 |
| South 3 | Shingo Hori tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 94% | 3% | 2% | -6.4 | +0.2 | -10.0 | +16.2 |
| South 4 | Hiroe Sugawara ron 3,900 from Shingo Hori | 0% | 97% | 0% | 3% | -6.9 | +1.8 | +27.2 | -22.0 |