Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
3/7 Game 1
Sasaki Hisato finished 1st (+70.6pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Sasaki Hisato ron 9,600 from Sugawara Hiroe, which moved Sasaki Hisato's expected points by +24.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Sugawara Hiroe 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Sugawara Hiroe Expected pt change | Hori Shingo Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sasaki Hisato ron 8,000 from Hori Shingo | 25% | 27% | 23% | 26% | -2.5 | +20.8 | +1.0 | -19.3 |
| East 2 | Sugawara Hiroe ron 2,600 from Hori Shingo | 21% | 40% | 23% | 15% | +2.7 | -1.2 | +5.9 | -7.4 |
| East 3 | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 6,000 | 22% | 39% | 27% | 12% | -7.3 | -6.4 | +18.1 | -4.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sugawara Hiroe ron 4,800 from Hori Shingo | 18% | 32% | 42% | 9% | -0.8 | -1.0 | +11.2 | -9.4 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Draw | 14% | 28% | 52% | 6% | -2.5 | +5.6 | -3.0 | -0.1 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 5,200 from Sugawara Hiroe | 12% | 33% | 49% | 5% | -1.1 | +21.9 | -16.9 | -3.9 |
| South 1 | Hori Shingo ron 8,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 11% | 58% | 27% | 3% | -25.5 | +2.1 | +0.9 | +22.4 |
| South 2 | Draw | 2% | 64% | 26% | 8% | -6.3 | +1.5 | +0.7 | +4.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato ron 9,600 from Sugawara Hiroe | 1% | 64% | 27% | 8% | +2.2 | +24.2 | -28.6 | +2.1 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 3,000 | 0% | 92% | 4% | 4% | -1.0 | +4.3 | -1.5 | -1.8 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Matsugase Takaya ron 2,600 from Sasaki Hisato | 0% | 94% | 3% | 3% | +5.6 | -3.8 | +0.1 | -1.9 |
| South 3 | Hori Shingo tsumo 4,000 | 0% | 95% | 3% | 2% | -6.2 | +0.3 | -10.7 | +16.5 |
| South 4 | Sugawara Hiroe ron 3,900 from Hori Shingo | 0% | 97% | 0% | 3% | -7.0 | +1.8 | +27.0 | -21.8 |