Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
3/10 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+54.2pt). The game was decided in South 1: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +28.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 26% | 23% | 25% | 26% | -3.3 | -16.5 | -0.5 | +20.3 |
| East 2 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 7,800 | 20% | 15% | 23% | 42% | -6.5 | +18.9 | -5.9 | -6.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 4,000 | 18% | 25% | 21% | 37% | +14.8 | -10.6 | -3.7 | -0.6 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,600 from Aiko Hinata | 28% | 17% | 19% | 36% | +3.2 | -0.7 | -9.2 | +6.6 |
| East 4 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 3,200 | 29% | 17% | 13% | 41% | +8.4 | -1.9 | -3.6 | -2.9 |
| South 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 36% | 15% | 11% | 38% | -15.8 | -4.8 | -8.0 | +28.6 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 3,900 from Futoshi Watanabe | 14% | 9% | 5% | 72% | +1.2 | -17.6 | +2.1 | +14.3 |
| South 3 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 12,000 | 5% | 1% | 4% | 91% | -12.0 | -11.5 | +32.1 | -8.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 5,200 from Aiko Hinata | 6% | 1% | 13% | 81% | +2.6 | +8.9 | -19.0 | +7.4 |
| South 4 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000 | 2% | 0% | 1% | 97% | -13.4 | +45.8 | -26.2 | -6.2 |