Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
3/10 Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+54.2pt). The game was decided in South 1: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +27.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Hinata Aiko Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 27% | 26% | 22% | 25% | -6.4 | -21.6 | +5.8 | +22.2 |
| East 2 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 7,800 | 20% | 13% | 25% | 42% | -3.6 | +18.7 | -10.1 | -5.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 4,000 | 19% | 23% | 20% | 38% | +14.8 | -8.3 | -2.5 | -4.0 |
| East 3 | Setokuma Naoki ron 2,600 from Hinata Aiko | 28% | 18% | 19% | 35% | +0.6 | -0.5 | -10.1 | +10.0 |
| East 4 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 3,200 | 27% | 17% | 13% | 43% | +11.4 | -3.6 | -2.7 | -5.0 |
| South 1 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000 | 38% | 14% | 10% | 37% | -16.1 | -4.9 | -6.7 | +27.7 |
| South 2 | Setokuma Naoki ron 3,900 from Watanabe Futoshi | 14% | 9% | 7% | 70% | +1.3 | -15.5 | -0.5 | +14.8 |
| South 3 | Hinata Aiko tsumo 12,000 | 7% | 0% | 4% | 90% | -14.0 | -12.5 | +34.4 | -7.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Watanabe Futoshi ron 5,200 from Hinata Aiko | 5% | 0% | 14% | 81% | +4.1 | +9.1 | -19.5 | +6.3 |
| South 4 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 12,000 | 3% | 1% | 1% | 96% | -13.9 | +45.7 | -26.5 | -5.3 |