Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2024-25 Regular Season

3/11 Game 2

Asai Takaki finished 1st (+61.0pt). The game was decided in East 4, 4 honba: Asai Takaki tsumo 7,800, which moved Asai Takaki's expected points by +22.3.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 1End● Asai Takaki● Hori Shingo● Katsumata Kenji● Takamiya Mari0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4End● Asai● Hori● Katsumata● Takamiya
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultHori Shingo
1st-place chance
Katsumata Kenji
1st-place chance
Takamiya Mari
1st-place chance
Asai Takaki
1st-place chance
Hori Shingo
Expected pt change
Katsumata Kenji
Expected pt change
Takamiya Mari
Expected pt change
Asai Takaki
Expected pt change
East 1Takamiya Mari ron 2,600 from Asai Takaki25%25%25%25%-4.3-2.8+11.8-4.8
East 2Takamiya Mari ron 3,900 from Katsumata Kenji21%23%34%22%+0.7-13.8+14.1-0.9
East 3Draw20%14%46%20%-1.6-3.1+5.4-0.7
East 3, 1 honbaTakamiya Mari ron 12,000 from Asai Takaki18%12%51%19%-5.3+2.0+31.4-28.1
East 3, 2 honbaDraw8%6%82%5%-1.8+1.4-2.3+2.7
East 4, 3 honbaAsai Takaki ron 5,800 from Katsumata Kenji8%5%83%5%-0.7-18.0+0.2+18.4
East 4, 4 honbaAsai Takaki tsumo 7,8006%3%82%9%-6.2-8.3-7.8+22.3
East 4, 5 honbaAsai Takaki ron 2,000 from Katsumata Kenji7%2%72%19%-0.3-6.6-3.3+10.2
East 4, 6 honbaTakamiya Mari ron 8,000 from Hori Shingo7%2%65%26%-17.7+2.7+20.9-5.9
South 1Hori Shingo ron 7,700 from Takamiya Mari1%1%88%10%+13.1-3.0-12.8+2.7
South 1, 1 honbaAsai Takaki tsumo 2,7004%1%75%19%-5.3-1.9-1.2+8.5
South 2Asai Takaki tsumo 5,2001%1%74%24%-0.3-7.0-2.9+10.2
South 3Hori Shingo ron 12,000 from Takamiya Mari0%0%68%32%+18.1-1.6-38.1+21.6
South 4Hori Shingo ron 2,000 from Katsumata Kenji2%0%12%85%-0.7-2.6-1.6+4.9

All 2024-25 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)