Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
3/14 Game 2
Honda Tomohiro finished 1st (+63.1pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Honda Tomohiro ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka, which moved Honda Tomohiro's expected points by +43.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Honda Tomohiro ron 4,800 from Kayamori Sayaka | 24% | 25% | 24% | 27% | +15.6 | -0.6 | -1.6 | -13.4 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 12,000 | 36% | 24% | 23% | 18% | +30.0 | -9.3 | -12.2 | -8.5 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Takizawa Kazunori ron 1,000 from Honda Tomohiro | 62% | 14% | 13% | 11% | -4.3 | +1.1 | +3.2 | -0.1 |
| East 2 | Draw | 58% | 15% | 14% | 12% | -2.7 | +5.2 | 0.0 | -2.5 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Takizawa Kazunori ron 5,200 from Nakabayashi Kei | 57% | 17% | 15% | 10% | +2.0 | -18.2 | +15.1 | +1.1 |
| East 3 | Draw | 58% | 9% | 23% | 11% | +6.4 | +0.1 | -3.8 | -2.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 66% | 8% | 17% | 10% | -0.3 | -2.6 | -1.5 | +4.4 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Draw | 66% | 7% | 17% | 10% | -3.0 | -1.0 | -3.4 | +7.4 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 6,000 | 63% | 8% | 14% | 15% | -7.8 | -9.1 | -5.2 | +22.2 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 54% | 5% | 15% | 27% | -0.9 | +25.3 | -11.5 | -13.0 |
| South 1 | Draw | 55% | 16% | 11% | 19% | -2.2 | +7.3 | -3.0 | -2.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Honda Tomohiro ron 3,900 from Kayamori Sayaka | 54% | 18% | 9% | 18% | +21.6 | -5.8 | -1.9 | -13.9 |
| South 3 | Takizawa Kazunori ron 7,700 from Nakabayashi Kei | 84% | 4% | 6% | 6% | -1.8 | -24.8 | +26.6 | +0.1 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Takizawa Kazunori tsumo 18,000 | 81% | 1% | 11% | 7% | -33.0 | -9.6 | +55.4 | -12.8 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 5,200 | 18% | 0% | 79% | 3% | +18.0 | -0.9 | -12.8 | -4.3 |
| South 4 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,000 from Honda Tomohiro | 42% | 0% | 57% | 1% | -6.1 | -3.6 | +4.1 | +5.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 3,900 from Honda Tomohiro | 32% | 0% | 67% | 2% | -11.4 | -2.5 | +4.5 | +9.3 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Honda Tomohiro ron 8,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 17% | 0% | 79% | 4% | +43.7 | +18.3 | -30.6 | -31.3 |