Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
3/14 Game 2
Tomohiro Honda finished 1st (+63.1pt). The game was decided in South 4, 2 honba: Tomohiro Honda ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori, which moved Tomohiro Honda's expected points by +42.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Tomohiro Honda ron 4,800 from Sayaka Kayamori | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | +13.6 | +0.1 | -2.2 | -11.5 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 12,000 | 34% | 25% | 23% | 19% | +31.5 | -11.7 | -10.5 | -9.3 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 1,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 61% | 14% | 14% | 11% | -5.7 | +1.8 | +2.6 | +1.3 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 56% | 16% | 16% | 12% | -0.5 | +4.7 | 0.0 | -4.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 5,200 from Kei Nakabayashi | 57% | 17% | 16% | 10% | +2.4 | -16.7 | +13.6 | +0.7 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 60% | 10% | 22% | 9% | +5.2 | -0.6 | -3.0 | -1.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 67% | 8% | 17% | 8% | +0.6 | -3.9 | -0.3 | +3.6 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 66% | 6% | 18% | 10% | -2.6 | -1.7 | -5.4 | +9.8 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 6,000 | 64% | 7% | 14% | 15% | -6.4 | -8.0 | -5.7 | +20.2 |
| East 4, 4 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 57% | 5% | 13% | 25% | -3.2 | +26.2 | -9.6 | -13.3 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 57% | 15% | 11% | 18% | -3.0 | +8.6 | -4.9 | -0.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 3,900 from Sayaka Kayamori | 53% | 19% | 9% | 18% | +22.2 | -7.7 | -0.2 | -14.4 |
| South 3 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 7,700 from Kei Nakabayashi | 85% | 4% | 5% | 6% | -1.8 | -25.2 | +25.7 | +1.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa tsumo 18,000 | 81% | 1% | 11% | 7% | -34.3 | -9.2 | +56.6 | -13.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 5,200 | 17% | 0% | 81% | 3% | +20.5 | -1.3 | -15.5 | -3.7 |
| South 4 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,000 from Tomohiro Honda | 45% | 0% | 53% | 2% | -7.2 | -3.1 | +5.3 | +5.1 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 3,900 from Tomohiro Honda | 33% | 0% | 65% | 2% | -10.6 | -2.2 | +4.9 | +7.9 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 8,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 18% | 0% | 78% | 4% | +42.5 | +18.2 | -30.1 | -30.5 |