Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
3/18 Game 1
Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+64.2pt). The game was decided in East 2: Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Mizuhara Akina, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +24.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Hori Shingo Expected pt change | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 1,100 | 24% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -4.5 | -0.5 | -1.5 | +6.5 |
| East 2 | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Mizuhara Akina | 21% | 25% | 24% | 30% | -0.6 | -3.6 | -20.3 | +24.5 |
| East 3 | Draw | 18% | 20% | 12% | 50% | -3.3 | +4.3 | +1.5 | -2.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 18% | 21% | 14% | 47% | -20.7 | -0.5 | -3.3 | +24.4 |
| East 4 | Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000 | 6% | 15% | 7% | 73% | -5.5 | -9.0 | -6.1 | +20.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 4,000 | 2% | 5% | 2% | 91% | +8.0 | -2.0 | -3.8 | -2.2 |
| South 1 | Sasaki Hisato ron 5,800 from Mizuhara Akina | 2% | 4% | 2% | 92% | +19.0 | -5.0 | -13.1 | -1.0 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 18,000 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 91% | +40.4 | -11.8 | -10.1 | -18.5 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Hori Shingo tsumo 8,000 | 33% | 3% | 1% | 63% | -11.9 | +14.0 | -4.9 | +2.8 |
| South 2 | Mizuhara Akina ron 8,000 from Hori Shingo | 22% | 5% | 1% | 72% | +1.1 | -19.8 | +14.6 | +4.1 |
| South 3 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 5,200 | 19% | 0% | 1% | 80% | +9.4 | +2.1 | -8.4 | -3.0 |
| South 4 | Mizuhara Akina ron 8,000 from Sasaki Hisato | 25% | 0% | 0% | 75% | -17.8 | -16.6 | +25.8 | +8.5 |