Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
3/18 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+64.2pt). The game was decided in East 2: Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +26.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 1,100 | 24% | 26% | 24% | 26% | -1.1 | -3.0 | +0.9 | +3.2 |
| East 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 22% | 23% | 26% | 28% | -3.2 | -2.6 | -20.2 | +26.0 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 18% | 14% | 50% | -2.0 | +3.5 | +1.6 | -3.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 18% | 20% | 14% | 48% | -21.7 | -0.1 | -3.9 | +25.6 |
| East 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 6% | 14% | 7% | 73% | -6.2 | -8.5 | -5.4 | +20.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 4,000 | 2% | 4% | 3% | 91% | +8.0 | -2.5 | -3.3 | -2.2 |
| South 1 | Hisato Sasaki ron 5,800 from Akina Mizuhara | 3% | 4% | 2% | 92% | +19.1 | -3.7 | -15.1 | -0.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 18,000 | 5% | 3% | 1% | 91% | +39.7 | -12.5 | -9.6 | -17.7 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 8,000 | 33% | 2% | 0% | 65% | -11.5 | +14.9 | -4.0 | +0.7 |
| South 2 | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Shingo Hori | 22% | 6% | 1% | 71% | +1.2 | -19.7 | +13.1 | +5.4 |
| South 3 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 5,200 | 18% | 0% | 2% | 81% | +10.9 | +1.3 | -7.5 | -4.7 |
| South 4 | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Hisato Sasaki | 28% | 0% | 0% | 72% | -19.1 | -16.5 | +25.7 | +9.9 |