Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
3/18 Game 2
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+63.1pt). The game was decided in East 4, 2 honba: Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 16,000, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +46.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Honda Tomohiro 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Takizawa Kazunori 1st-place chance | Honda Tomohiro Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Hori Shingo Expected pt change | Takizawa Kazunori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 24% | 26% | 24% | -13.5 | +22.7 | -5.5 | -3.7 |
| East 2 | Takizawa Kazunori ron 8,000 from Hori Shingo | 16% | 42% | 21% | 21% | +1.4 | -5.6 | -18.6 | +22.8 |
| East 3 | Draw | 16% | 34% | 12% | 39% | -2.8 | +0.9 | +4.4 | -2.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 5,200 from Hori Shingo | 14% | 36% | 14% | 36% | -0.5 | +21.7 | -18.6 | -2.5 |
| East 4 | Draw | 11% | 56% | 4% | 29% | -1.7 | -4.8 | -2.7 | +9.2 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Takizawa Kazunori ron 7,700 from Nakabayashi Kei | 10% | 48% | 4% | 37% | +0.9 | -22.4 | +1.5 | +20.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 16,000 | 11% | 24% | 4% | 61% | -9.9 | +46.6 | -7.8 | -28.9 |
| South 1 | Hori Shingo tsumo 5,200 | 3% | 77% | 1% | 19% | -9.6 | +1.6 | +9.9 | -2.0 |
| South 2 | Draw | 1% | 82% | 2% | 15% | -2.9 | -1.0 | +4.2 | -0.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hori Shingo ron 2,000 from Takizawa Kazunori | 0% | 85% | 3% | 12% | -2.8 | +0.8 | +9.0 | -7.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Honda Tomohiro tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 87% | 4% | 9% | +22.6 | +0.4 | -19.9 | -3.1 |
| South 4 | Hori Shingo tsumo 2,000 | 1% | 92% | 0% | 7% | -3.1 | +3.4 | -0.9 | +0.6 |