Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
3/18 Game 2
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+63.1pt). The game was decided in East 4, 2 honba: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 16,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +47.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Kazunori Takizawa 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Kazunori Takizawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 27% | 23% | 24% | 26% | -14.2 | +22.3 | -4.9 | -3.3 |
| East 2 | Kazunori Takizawa ron 8,000 from Shingo Hori | 16% | 41% | 21% | 22% | -0.1 | -2.1 | -19.2 | +21.4 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 38% | 12% | 36% | -3.0 | -1.8 | +3.3 | +1.4 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 5,200 from Shingo Hori | 14% | 36% | 13% | 38% | +0.8 | +21.4 | -17.5 | -4.6 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 56% | 4% | 29% | -2.9 | -4.0 | -1.5 | +8.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kazunori Takizawa ron 7,700 from Kei Nakabayashi | 10% | 50% | 4% | 36% | +1.1 | -22.8 | +0.5 | +21.3 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 16,000 | 10% | 24% | 4% | 62% | -9.9 | +47.0 | -6.0 | -31.1 |
| South 1 | Shingo Hori tsumo 5,200 | 4% | 78% | 2% | 16% | -8.5 | +0.9 | +7.6 | -0.1 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 83% | 2% | 14% | -4.7 | -1.2 | +6.4 | -0.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Shingo Hori ron 2,000 from Kazunori Takizawa | 0% | 84% | 3% | 13% | -1.4 | +1.4 | +7.5 | -7.5 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 88% | 3% | 9% | +21.5 | +0.4 | -19.4 | -2.5 |
| South 4 | Shingo Hori tsumo 2,000 | 0% | 93% | 0% | 7% | -2.4 | +2.9 | -0.9 | +0.4 |