Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
3/20 Game 1
Namba Shibukawa finished 1st (+56.8pt). The game was decided in South 2, 1 honba: Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000, which moved Namba Shibukawa's expected points by +48.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 24% | 25% | 26% | -4.2 | -3.7 | +3.2 | +4.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe ron 12,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 21% | 24% | 27% | 28% | -1.4 | +30.5 | -28.7 | -0.4 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 4,000 | 18% | 44% | 12% | 26% | -1.3 | -3.7 | +7.7 | -2.6 |
| East 3 | Sho Shiratori ron 1,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 18% | 42% | 14% | 26% | -0.2 | +0.9 | -5.3 | +4.6 |
| East 4 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 2,000 | 17% | 43% | 11% | 29% | -1.4 | +2.1 | +6.7 | -7.4 |
| South 1 | Sho Shiratori ron 8,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 17% | 47% | 14% | 22% | -3.6 | -26.6 | -2.3 | +32.4 |
| South 2 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 12,000 from Sho Shiratori | 12% | 20% | 12% | 55% | +0.1 | +41.2 | +1.4 | -42.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 64% | 12% | 14% | -11.7 | -21.0 | +48.0 | -15.3 |
| South 3 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 3,900 | 5% | 35% | 51% | 8% | -2.2 | -8.2 | +12.5 | -2.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 19% | 71% | 7% | -8.1 | -1.6 | +2.7 | +7.1 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 1,500 from Namba Shibukawa | 1% | 13% | 79% | 7% | -2.8 | +1.3 | -6.1 | +7.6 |
| South 4, 3 honba | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 2,000 | 1% | 17% | 71% | 11% | -6.6 | -2.6 | +16.2 | -7.0 |