Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
3/24 Game 2
Date Arisa finished 1st (+65.7pt). The game was decided in East 1: Date Arisa tsumo 18,000, which moved Date Arisa's expected points by +43.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Sugawara Hiroe 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Sugawara Hiroe Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Date Arisa tsumo 18,000 | 25% | 24% | 26% | 25% | +43.2 | -12.1 | -16.4 | -14.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Date Arisa tsumo 1,500 | 60% | 14% | 13% | 13% | +6.8 | -2.9 | -2.4 | -1.5 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Shiratori Sho ron 2,000 from Sonoda Ken | 66% | 11% | 11% | 11% | +0.5 | -0.4 | +6.9 | -7.0 |
| East 2 | Date Arisa ron 3,900 from Sonoda Ken | 67% | 10% | 14% | 9% | +9.1 | -0.7 | -1.3 | -7.0 |
| East 3 | Shiratori Sho tsumo 3,000 | 78% | 7% | 10% | 5% | -2.3 | -3.7 | +7.4 | -1.3 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 8,000 | 76% | 6% | 13% | 6% | -0.9 | -4.5 | -11.8 | +17.2 |
| East 4 | Date Arisa ron 5,200 from Sonoda Ken | 78% | 5% | 7% | 10% | +10.9 | -0.1 | +2.7 | -13.5 |
| South 1 | Sonoda Ken ron 8,000 from Sugawara Hiroe | 90% | 3% | 5% | 3% | -0.5 | -20.3 | -1.6 | +22.4 |
| South 2 | Sugawara Hiroe ron 1,500 from Sonoda Ken | 90% | 1% | 3% | 6% | -0.5 | +5.2 | -1.3 | -3.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sugawara Hiroe ron 2,900 from Sonoda Ken | 90% | 2% | 4% | 5% | +1.0 | +6.9 | -0.3 | -7.6 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 1,300 from Sugawara Hiroe | 91% | 2% | 3% | 4% | +1.7 | -10.1 | +0.1 | +8.3 |
| South 3 | Draw | 94% | 0% | 2% | 4% | -4.2 | +3.7 | -0.4 | +0.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho tsumo 3,000 | 91% | 0% | 4% | 5% | -1.8 | -4.3 | +14.2 | -8.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Date Arisa ron 1,300 from Sonoda Ken | 90% | 0% | 6% | 5% | +5.7 | -2.0 | +1.7 | -5.3 |
| South 4 | Shiratori Sho ron 3,900 from Date Arisa | 98% | 0% | 0% | 2% | -3.0 | -3.1 | +9.4 | -3.3 |