Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
3/24 Game 2
Arisa Date finished 1st (+65.7pt). The game was decided in East 1: Arisa Date tsumo 18,000, which moved Arisa Date's expected points by +45.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Hiroe Sugawara 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Hiroe Sugawara Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Arisa Date tsumo 18,000 | 25% | 24% | 26% | 25% | +45.2 | -13.2 | -17.0 | -15.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Arisa Date tsumo 1,500 | 62% | 12% | 14% | 13% | +5.5 | 0.0 | -2.7 | -2.8 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori ron 2,000 from Ken Sonoda | 67% | 12% | 11% | 10% | -0.6 | -4.1 | +7.9 | -3.2 |
| East 2 | Arisa Date ron 3,900 from Ken Sonoda | 68% | 10% | 12% | 10% | +9.1 | +0.9 | -1.7 | -8.3 |
| East 3 | Sho Shiratori tsumo 3,000 | 78% | 7% | 9% | 6% | -2.3 | -3.9 | +8.8 | -2.6 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 8,000 | 75% | 6% | 13% | 6% | -0.2 | -5.2 | -13.6 | +19.0 |
| East 4 | Arisa Date ron 5,200 from Ken Sonoda | 78% | 4% | 8% | 10% | +10.7 | +2.1 | +1.6 | -14.3 |
| South 1 | Ken Sonoda ron 8,000 from Hiroe Sugawara | 90% | 4% | 4% | 3% | -0.4 | -21.9 | -0.9 | +23.1 |
| South 2 | Hiroe Sugawara ron 1,500 from Ken Sonoda | 91% | 1% | 3% | 6% | -0.8 | +6.2 | -1.7 | -3.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hiroe Sugawara ron 2,900 from Ken Sonoda | 90% | 2% | 4% | 5% | +1.6 | +5.5 | +1.1 | -8.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 1,300 from Hiroe Sugawara | 92% | 2% | 3% | 3% | +0.8 | -8.4 | -0.7 | +8.3 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 94% | 0% | 2% | 4% | -2.8 | +3.0 | -0.4 | +0.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 3,000 | 92% | 0% | 4% | 4% | -2.3 | -5.7 | +14.5 | -6.4 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Arisa Date ron 1,300 from Ken Sonoda | 91% | 0% | 5% | 4% | +5.3 | -0.5 | +1.5 | -6.3 |
| South 4 | Sho Shiratori ron 3,900 from Arisa Date | 98% | 0% | 0% | 2% | -3.0 | -3.6 | +9.5 | -2.9 |