Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
3/25 Game 2
Sayaka Okada finished 1st (+53.8pt). The game was decided in East 1, 1 honba: Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000, which moved Sayaka Okada's expected points by +25.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Sayaka Okada 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Sayaka Okada Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 24% | 26% | 24% | 26% | +6.2 | -2.9 | -1.2 | -2.0 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada tsumo 8,000 | 29% | 24% | 22% | 24% | -14.0 | -8.2 | -2.8 | +25.0 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 18% | 20% | 44% | -2.5 | -3.2 | -0.3 | +6.0 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Okada ron 1,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 16% | 14% | 19% | 51% | -2.5 | -3.2 | -4.1 | +9.9 |
| East 4 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,000 from Hiroshi Daigo | 14% | 11% | 15% | 61% | -0.7 | -7.4 | +7.3 | +0.8 |
| South 1 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,300 from Sayaka Okada | 12% | 9% | 16% | 64% | -3.8 | -1.6 | +8.5 | -3.1 |
| South 2 | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 3,000 | 8% | 8% | 22% | 62% | -4.5 | +13.0 | -6.2 | -2.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 12,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 8% | 14% | 20% | 58% | -28.9 | +37.6 | -2.6 | -6.1 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 1% | 38% | 15% | 46% | -1.5 | -4.7 | +5.3 | +0.9 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 33% | 18% | 48% | -0.7 | +4.5 | -7.2 | +3.4 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 5,200 from Hiroshi Daigo | 0% | 37% | 10% | 53% | +7.8 | -18.4 | -8.9 | +19.4 |