Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
3/27 Game 2
Sonoda Ken finished 1st (+87.0pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Sonoda Ken ron 32,000 from Matsugase Takaya, which moved Sonoda Ken's expected points by +76.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Shiratori Sho 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Sonoda Ken 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Shiratori Sho Expected pt change | Hori Shingo Expected pt change | Sonoda Ken Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sonoda Ken ron 5,200 from Matsugase Takaya | 25% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -13.4 | -0.1 | -3.2 | +16.7 |
| East 2 | Hori Shingo ron 3,900 from Shiratori Sho | 15% | 24% | 24% | 38% | -1.6 | -11.6 | +9.5 | +3.8 |
| East 3 | Shiratori Sho ron 8,000 from Hori Shingo | 14% | 16% | 29% | 41% | +0.2 | +22.4 | -23.1 | +0.5 |
| East 4 | Hori Shingo tsumo 2,700 | 14% | 29% | 14% | 42% | -1.1 | 0.0 | +7.8 | -6.7 |
| South 1 | Draw | 15% | 31% | 18% | 36% | +2.3 | +4.7 | -3.9 | -3.1 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Shiratori Sho tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 35% | 17% | 33% | -14.9 | +27.8 | -6.1 | -6.8 |
| South 2 | Matsugase Takaya ron 8,000 from Hori Shingo | 4% | 67% | 9% | 20% | +22.4 | +1.8 | -22.1 | -2.1 |
| South 3 | Draw | 9% | 71% | 4% | 16% | -1.2 | -5.5 | +2.3 | +4.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Draw | 11% | 62% | 5% | 21% | -4.1 | -0.1 | +5.8 | -1.6 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Sonoda Ken ron 32,000 from Matsugase Takaya | 9% | 62% | 7% | 22% | -58.5 | -23.8 | +6.1 | +76.2 |
| South 4 | Draw | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -1.5 | +1.9 | -1.1 | +0.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Sonoda Ken tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 100% | -4.2 | -4.4 | -4.7 | +13.2 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Shiratori Sho tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -3.2 | +14.3 | -2.5 | -8.6 |