Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
3/27 Game 2
Ken Sonoda finished 1st (+87.0pt). The game was decided in South 3, 2 honba: Ken Sonoda ron 32,000 from Takaya Matsugase, which moved Ken Sonoda's expected points by +75.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Ken Sonoda 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Ken Sonoda Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Ken Sonoda ron 5,200 from Takaya Matsugase | 25% | 26% | 24% | 25% | -13.5 | -2.2 | -2.0 | +17.7 |
| East 2 | Shingo Hori ron 3,900 from Sho Shiratori | 16% | 23% | 22% | 38% | -1.7 | -12.8 | +12.1 | +2.5 |
| East 3 | Sho Shiratori ron 8,000 from Shingo Hori | 14% | 15% | 29% | 42% | +1.0 | +24.2 | -24.9 | -0.3 |
| East 4 | Shingo Hori tsumo 2,700 | 15% | 31% | 14% | 40% | -5.3 | +0.7 | +9.0 | -4.4 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 12% | 33% | 19% | 36% | +5.5 | +4.3 | -5.2 | -4.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 8,000 | 16% | 36% | 16% | 33% | -14.5 | +28.3 | -6.6 | -7.2 |
| South 2 | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Shingo Hori | 4% | 67% | 9% | 20% | +24.3 | +0.1 | -23.5 | -0.8 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 69% | 2% | 18% | -5.3 | -3.3 | +5.1 | +3.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 9% | 64% | 5% | 21% | -2.3 | -1.3 | +5.0 | -1.4 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Ken Sonoda ron 32,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 9% | 63% | 6% | 22% | -58.7 | -23.9 | +7.3 | +75.3 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 1% | 0% | 99% | -1.1 | +1.8 | -1.7 | +1.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Ken Sonoda tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 99% | -4.4 | -4.8 | -4.3 | +13.5 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Sho Shiratori tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -3.1 | +14.5 | -2.7 | -8.7 |