Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
9/16 Game 2
Shingo Hori finished 1st (+86.4pt). The game was decided in South 3, 4 honba: Shingo Hori ron 12,000 from Masato Hagiwara, which moved Shingo Hori's expected points by +34.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Shingo Hori ron 5,200 from Futoshi Watanabe | 26% | 23% | 26% | 25% | -16.5 | +4.6 | +12.9 | -1.0 |
| East 2 | Shingo Hori tsumo 8,000 | 14% | 27% | 35% | 24% | -3.0 | -16.5 | +24.7 | -5.1 |
| East 3 | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 12% | 13% | 56% | 18% | -0.8 | +24.8 | -4.1 | -19.9 |
| East 4 | Shingo Hori ron 8,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 11% | 27% | 52% | 10% | -18.9 | -3.2 | +23.6 | -1.4 |
| South 1 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 14% | 79% | 4% | -10.8 | +19.9 | -7.1 | -2.0 |
| South 2 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 24,000 | 0% | 30% | 67% | 3% | -7.5 | +51.5 | -33.2 | -10.8 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 8,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 0% | 93% | 6% | 1% | -14.6 | -1.3 | +0.4 | +15.5 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 93% | 6% | 1% | -0.6 | -1.8 | +3.3 | -1.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Shingo Hori ron 7,700 from Masato Hagiwara | 0% | 91% | 8% | 1% | +0.5 | -3.8 | +13.5 | -10.2 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 7,800 | 0% | 82% | 18% | 0% | -3.0 | -12.6 | +18.6 | -3.0 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 58% | 42% | 0% | +2.4 | -3.8 | +3.3 | -1.9 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Shingo Hori ron 12,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 0% | 51% | 49% | 0% | +5.7 | -17.9 | +34.0 | -21.8 |
| South 3, 5 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 7% | 93% | 0% | +6.1 | +0.4 | -0.9 | -5.6 |
| South 4, 6 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 5% | 95% | 0% | +1.2 | +1.8 | -4.3 | +1.4 |
| South 4, 7 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 2,700 | 0% | 9% | 91% | 0% | +14.9 | -5.0 | +1.5 | -11.4 |