Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
9/16 Game 2
Hori Shingo finished 1st (+86.4pt). The game was decided in South 3, 4 honba: Hori Shingo ron 12,000 from Hagiwara Masato, which moved Hori Shingo's expected points by +32.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Hori Shingo 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Hori Shingo Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hori Shingo ron 5,200 from Watanabe Futoshi | 27% | 24% | 25% | 24% | -15.8 | +0.5 | +13.0 | +2.3 |
| East 2 | Hori Shingo tsumo 8,000 | 16% | 24% | 35% | 25% | -7.6 | -12.5 | +23.1 | -3.0 |
| East 3 | Matsugase Takaya ron 8,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 10% | 14% | 56% | 20% | +1.9 | +24.0 | -2.0 | -24.0 |
| East 4 | Hori Shingo ron 8,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 10% | 26% | 55% | 9% | -19.6 | -1.6 | +20.2 | +1.1 |
| South 1 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 17% | 76% | 5% | -9.1 | +17.8 | -4.7 | -4.0 |
| South 2 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 24,000 | 0% | 29% | 67% | 3% | -8.6 | +51.0 | -32.8 | -9.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 8,000 from Watanabe Futoshi | 0% | 92% | 8% | 1% | -14.4 | -0.3 | -0.8 | +15.5 |
| South 3 | Draw | 0% | 94% | 6% | 1% | -1.1 | -2.1 | +4.1 | -1.0 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Hori Shingo ron 7,700 from Hagiwara Masato | 0% | 90% | 9% | 1% | +0.8 | -4.1 | +13.4 | -10.2 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Hori Shingo tsumo 7,800 | 0% | 81% | 18% | 0% | -2.7 | -11.7 | +17.6 | -3.2 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Draw | 0% | 58% | 42% | 0% | +1.9 | -4.6 | +5.0 | -2.4 |
| South 3, 4 honba | Hori Shingo ron 12,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 0% | 49% | 51% | 0% | +6.1 | -17.5 | +32.9 | -21.4 |
| South 3, 5 honba | Draw | 0% | 7% | 93% | 0% | +5.6 | +0.9 | -1.4 | -5.1 |
| South 4, 6 honba | Draw | 0% | 5% | 95% | 0% | +0.9 | +2.1 | -4.8 | +1.8 |
| South 4, 7 honba | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 2,700 | 0% | 10% | 90% | 0% | +15.4 | -5.6 | +2.4 | -12.2 |