Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
9/19 Game 1
Naoki Setokuma finished 1st (+77.6pt). The game was decided in East 3, 2 honba: Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000, which moved Naoki Setokuma's expected points by +35.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Aiko Hinata 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Aiko Hinata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | +30.4 | -10.6 | -8.6 | -11.3 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 4,000 | 49% | 16% | 18% | 17% | -3.4 | -3.8 | +9.8 | -2.6 |
| East 2 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 4,000 | 47% | 15% | 23% | 15% | -2.6 | -9.5 | -2.2 | +14.3 |
| East 3 | Naoki Setokuma ron 2,900 from Aiko Hinata | 44% | 9% | 22% | 25% | +1.0 | +0.1 | +10.6 | -11.7 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 46% | 9% | 28% | 17% | -3.1 | -3.9 | +0.5 | +6.5 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 42% | 8% | 29% | 21% | -14.1 | -9.8 | +35.6 | -11.7 |
| East 3, 3 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 1,000 from Aki Nikaido | 22% | 4% | 61% | 13% | -6.4 | +4.5 | +2.3 | -0.4 |
| East 4 | Aiko Hinata tsumo 12,000 | 18% | 4% | 67% | 11% | -13.5 | -10.1 | -10.0 | +33.6 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 3% | 54% | 31% | -4.1 | -1.9 | +21.2 | -15.2 |
| South 1 | Aiko Hinata ron 2,600 from Akina Mizuhara | 7% | 2% | 80% | 12% | -5.5 | -4.1 | +2.1 | +7.5 |
| South 2 | Naoki Setokuma ron 8,000 from Aiko Hinata | 2% | 1% | 84% | 13% | +4.9 | -3.9 | +14.2 | -15.3 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 3,000 | 0% | 0% | 97% | 3% | -2.5 | -1.3 | +4.3 | -0.5 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Aiko Hinata ron 8,000 from Akina Mizuhara | 0% | 0% | 98% | 2% | -3.6 | -10.3 | -1.2 | +15.1 |
| South 4 | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 0% | 97% | 3% | +26.7 | -1.8 | -0.4 | -24.5 |