Game · 2024-25 Regular Season

9/19 Game 1

Setokuma Naoki finished 1st (+77.6pt). The game was decided in East 3, 2 honba: Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000, which moved Setokuma Naoki's expected points by +34.5.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

Hands	Result	Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance	Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance	Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance	Hinata Aiko 1st-place chance	Nikaido Aki Expected pt change	Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change	Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change	Hinata Aiko Expected pt change
East 1	Nikaido Aki tsumo 12,000	25%	26%	26%	24%	+33.7	-13.0	-10.3	-10.3
East 1, 1 honba	Setokuma Naoki tsumo 4,000	50%	16%	18%	16%	-5.7	-5.0	+10.2	+0.4
East 2	Hinata Aiko tsumo 4,000	46%	14%	22%	18%	-0.7	-9.3	-1.4	+11.4
East 3	Setokuma Naoki ron 2,900 from Hinata Aiko	44%	9%	22%	24%	-1.0	+0.9	+10.3	-10.2
East 3, 1 honba	Draw	43%	10%	29%	18%	-4.4	-4.0	+2.8	+5.5
East 3, 2 honba	Setokuma Naoki tsumo 12,000	39%	9%	32%	20%	-13.6	-9.5	+34.5	-11.5
East 3, 3 honba	Mizuhara Akina ron 1,000 from Nikaido Aki	22%	4%	63%	12%	-4.9	+4.5	+1.4	-1.0
East 4	Hinata Aiko tsumo 12,000	18%	5%	67%	11%	-13.0	-9.1	-9.4	+31.4
East 4, 1 honba	Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,000	13%	3%	55%	29%	-5.9	-2.7	+20.6	-12.0
South 1	Hinata Aiko ron 2,600 from Mizuhara Akina	6%	2%	80%	12%	-4.2	-4.7	+2.6	+6.3
South 2	Setokuma Naoki ron 8,000 from Hinata Aiko	2%	2%	84%	13%	+5.7	-3.8	+13.4	-15.3
South 3	Setokuma Naoki tsumo 3,000	0%	0%	98%	2%	-2.6	-1.0	+4.3	-0.7
South 3, 1 honba	Hinata Aiko ron 8,000 from Mizuhara Akina	0%	0%	98%	2%	-4.0	-10.4	-1.2	+15.6
South 4	Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000	0%	0%	97%	3%	+26.4	-1.4	-0.3	-24.6

All 2024-25 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)