Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
9/19 Game 2
Go Kobayashi finished 1st (+65.4pt). The game was decided in East 3, 1 honba: Go Kobayashi ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata, which moved Go Kobayashi's expected points by +38.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,300 from Saki Kurosawa | 26% | 25% | 25% | 24% | -1.8 | -5.0 | +1.0 | +5.8 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 25% | 21% | 25% | 29% | -3.5 | -2.8 | -2.2 | +8.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 21% | 19% | 25% | 35% | +38.9 | +1.0 | -2.6 | -37.2 |
| East 4 | Go Kobayashi ron 1,000 from Saki Kurosawa | 55% | 16% | 18% | 11% | +3.8 | -3.8 | +0.5 | -0.5 |
| South 1 | Kenji Katsumata ron 5,200 from Saki Kurosawa | 61% | 13% | 17% | 10% | +3.3 | -16.0 | -0.8 | +13.5 |
| South 2 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 8,000 | 68% | 7% | 13% | 12% | -1.6 | -16.5 | -6.9 | +25.0 |
| South 3 | Takaharu Ooi ron 12,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 65% | 1% | 10% | 24% | -4.0 | +2.9 | +37.7 | -36.6 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 5,200 from Kenji Katsumata | 57% | 1% | 36% | 7% | +20.3 | +7.0 | -9.9 | -17.5 |
| South 4 | Kenji Katsumata ron 3,900 from Saki Kurosawa | 87% | 0% | 11% | 2% | +0.7 | -14.8 | -0.5 | +14.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 1,500 from Takaharu Ooi | 88% | 0% | 10% | 3% | +1.4 | -0.6 | -3.8 | +3.0 |
| South 4, 2 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 1,000 from Kenji Katsumata | 91% | 0% | 6% | 3% | +6.4 | -3.3 | 0.0 | -3.1 |