Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
9/24 Game 1
Takaya Matsugase finished 1st (+58.9pt). The game was decided in South 1, 2 honba: Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa, which moved Takaya Matsugase's expected points by +28.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 23% | 27% | 25% | -12.0 | +23.6 | -7.4 | -4.3 |
| East 2 | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 3,900 from Takaya Matsugase | 16% | 42% | 21% | 22% | -0.1 | -2.2 | -11.9 | +14.2 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 39% | 15% | 32% | +0.7 | +2.0 | -3.1 | +0.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 17% | 40% | 11% | 32% | +0.7 | +0.4 | +5.0 | -6.2 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 8,000 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 16% | 43% | 15% | 26% | -28.9 | -0.8 | +28.5 | +1.2 |
| South 2 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 2,600 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 4% | 40% | 31% | 25% | +3.4 | +4.4 | +1.7 | -9.5 |
| South 3 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 6,000 | 3% | 47% | 30% | 19% | -2.9 | -14.0 | +23.6 | -6.8 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Takaya Matsugase ron 2,400 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 2% | 23% | 62% | 13% | +0.8 | -1.1 | +7.4 | -7.1 |
| South 3, 2 honba | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 7,800 | 1% | 19% | 72% | 9% | -3.4 | -9.1 | +17.5 | -5.0 |
| South 3, 3 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 5% | 92% | 3% | +3.1 | +0.3 | 0.0 | -3.4 |
| South 4, 4 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 5,200 from Takaya Matsugase | 0% | 1% | 96% | 3% | +20.0 | +4.1 | -4.1 | -20.0 |