Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
9/26 Game 2
Watanabe Futoshi finished 1st (+58.8pt). The game was decided in South 4: Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 12,000, which moved Watanabe Futoshi's expected points by +43.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Kurosawa Saki 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Watanabe Futoshi 1st-place chance | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Kurosawa Saki Expected pt change | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Watanabe Futoshi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 26% | 25% | 24% | -20.3 | -7.6 | -7.9 | +35.7 |
| East 2 | Draw | 10% | 18% | 18% | 53% | -5.4 | 0.0 | +4.9 | +0.4 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 8,000 | 9% | 18% | 19% | 53% | -7.3 | -15.0 | +26.4 | -4.1 |
| East 3 | Watanabe Futoshi ron 1,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 6% | 10% | 38% | 47% | -1.7 | +1.9 | -3.4 | +3.1 |
| East 4 | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 8,000 | 5% | 10% | 34% | 51% | -5.7 | +18.8 | -3.6 | -9.4 |
| South 1 | Date Arisa ron 2,900 from Kayamori Sayaka | 5% | 20% | 33% | 42% | +7.5 | +2.5 | -6.4 | -3.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Kurosawa Saki tsumo 4,000 | 8% | 22% | 30% | 41% | -11.6 | +15.8 | -6.9 | +2.6 |
| South 2 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 4,000 | 2% | 33% | 22% | 43% | -3.1 | -8.2 | +14.6 | -3.3 |
| South 3 | Date Arisa tsumo 16,000 | 1% | 25% | 35% | 39% | +54.4 | -9.5 | -38.5 | -6.3 |
| South 4 | Watanabe Futoshi tsumo 12,000 | 29% | 25% | 13% | 34% | -17.2 | -16.4 | -10.2 | +43.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Date Arisa ron 12,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 3% | 2% | 1% | 95% | +24.4 | -2.0 | -22.8 | +0.5 |