Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
9/26 Game 2
Futoshi Watanabe finished 1st (+58.8pt). The game was decided in South 4: Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000, which moved Futoshi Watanabe's expected points by +44.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Saki Kurosawa 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Saki Kurosawa Expected pt change | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 24% | 27% | 25% | -20.1 | -7.0 | -8.7 | +35.8 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 17% | 18% | 54% | -4.6 | +1.0 | +3.2 | +0.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 8,000 | 9% | 18% | 20% | 53% | -9.0 | -14.3 | +27.8 | -4.6 |
| East 3 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 1,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 5% | 9% | 40% | 46% | +0.8 | +0.9 | -5.0 | +3.4 |
| East 4 | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 8,000 | 6% | 10% | 33% | 51% | -7.5 | +20.8 | -2.0 | -11.2 |
| South 1 | Arisa Date ron 2,900 from Sayaka Kayamori | 5% | 20% | 34% | 41% | +6.5 | +0.8 | -9.0 | +1.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Saki Kurosawa tsumo 4,000 | 7% | 22% | 27% | 44% | -9.9 | +17.9 | -5.6 | -2.4 |
| South 2 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 4,000 | 2% | 35% | 23% | 40% | -3.8 | -8.8 | +12.8 | -0.2 |
| South 3 | Arisa Date tsumo 16,000 | 1% | 26% | 32% | 41% | +55.0 | -9.6 | -36.2 | -9.2 |
| South 4 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000 | 29% | 24% | 14% | 33% | -16.5 | -17.0 | -11.2 | +44.7 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Arisa Date ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 3% | 2% | 1% | 95% | +23.6 | -1.9 | -22.5 | +0.8 |