Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
9/27 Game 2
Kei Nakabayashi finished 1st (+54.8pt). The game was decided in South 1: Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000, which moved Kei Nakabayashi's expected points by +27.2.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Takaharu Ooi 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Aki Nikaido 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Takaharu Ooi Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Aki Nikaido Expected pt change | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Aki Nikaido ron 8,000 from Takaharu Ooi | 27% | 23% | 25% | 26% | -24.1 | +2.1 | +21.4 | +0.6 |
| East 2 | Takaharu Ooi tsumo 4,000 | 11% | 25% | 40% | 24% | +13.2 | -9.7 | -2.3 | -1.3 |
| East 3 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 18% | 17% | 39% | 25% | -5.6 | +24.3 | -13.2 | -5.6 |
| East 4 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 12,000 | 15% | 36% | 28% | 21% | -13.0 | -14.4 | -8.4 | +35.8 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 3,900 from Namba Shibukawa | 9% | 22% | 20% | 49% | +0.2 | +17.5 | +0.5 | -18.2 |
| South 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 8,000 | 9% | 36% | 22% | 32% | -12.2 | +27.2 | -9.0 | -6.0 |
| South 2 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Aki Nikaido | 2% | 68% | 12% | 19% | +5.0 | +23.2 | -28.0 | -0.3 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Aki Nikaido tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 90% | 2% | 8% | -8.4 | -4.9 | +16.9 | -3.6 |
| South 3 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 90% | 4% | 6% | +2.8 | +1.7 | -4.9 | +0.4 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Takaharu Ooi ron 12,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 0% | 95% | 1% | 5% | +45.4 | -10.0 | -16.8 | -18.6 |