Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
9/27 Game 2
Nakabayashi Kei finished 1st (+54.8pt). The game was decided in South 1: Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000, which moved Nakabayashi Kei's expected points by +27.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Ooi Takaharu 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Nikaido Aki 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Ooi Takaharu Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Nikaido Aki Expected pt change | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Nikaido Aki ron 8,000 from Ooi Takaharu | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -21.3 | -2.0 | +23.0 | +0.4 |
| East 2 | Ooi Takaharu tsumo 4,000 | 13% | 21% | 42% | 24% | +11.1 | -7.6 | -2.6 | -0.9 |
| East 3 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 18% | 18% | 38% | 25% | -5.3 | +23.2 | -11.9 | -5.9 |
| East 4 | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 12,000 | 15% | 34% | 29% | 22% | -9.0 | -12.5 | -12.8 | +34.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 3,900 from Shibukawa Namba | 11% | 22% | 19% | 49% | -2.4 | +17.6 | +2.9 | -18.1 |
| South 1 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 8,000 | 10% | 38% | 22% | 31% | -12.7 | +27.8 | -7.7 | -7.5 |
| South 2 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Nikaido Aki | 2% | 70% | 11% | 17% | +5.6 | +21.6 | -29.7 | +2.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Nikaido Aki tsumo 8,000 | 1% | 90% | 2% | 8% | -9.5 | -4.2 | +18.3 | -4.6 |
| South 3 | Draw | 0% | 92% | 3% | 6% | +4.2 | +0.9 | -6.1 | +0.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Ooi Takaharu ron 12,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 0% | 95% | 0% | 5% | +44.5 | -9.8 | -16.1 | -18.5 |