Most differences in results are within chance.They are no grounds for criticising players.

Game · 2024-25 Regular Season

9/30 Game 1

Nakada Kana finished 1st (+70.1pt). The game was decided in East 3: Nakada Kana ron 12,000 from Asami Maki, which moved Nakada Kana's expected points by +32.7.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 2South 2End● Nakada Kana● Setokuma Naoki● Sasaki Hisato● Asami Maki0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Nakada● Setokuma● Sasaki● Asami
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultSetokuma Naoki
1st-place chance
Nakada Kana
1st-place chance
Sasaki Hisato
1st-place chance
Asami Maki
1st-place chance
Setokuma Naoki
Expected pt change
Nakada Kana
Expected pt change
Sasaki Hisato
Expected pt change
Asami Maki
Expected pt change
East 1Asami Maki tsumo 8,00024%25%26%26%-10.3-5.6-6.1+22.0
East 2Nakada Kana tsumo 12,00017%21%20%42%-14.6+31.4-7.1-9.7
East 2, 1 honbaNakada Kana ron 3,900 from Asami Maki9%43%15%32%+0.6+12.4-0.9-12.2
East 2, 2 honbaDraw9%56%15%20%-1.7+4.7-2.3-0.7
East 2, 3 honbaSasaki Hisato tsumo 12,0008%60%13%19%-7.1-17.2+34.5-10.1
East 3Nakada Kana ron 12,000 from Asami Maki6%43%35%16%+0.8+32.7-6.1-27.4
East 4Sasaki Hisato ron 2,600 from Nakada Kana3%77%16%4%-1.0-3.9+8.1-3.1
South 1Draw3%71%24%2%+0.5+3.8-5.4+1.2
South 1, 1 honbaAsami Maki tsumo 4,0003%77%18%2%-9.7-0.1-1.0+10.7
South 2Nakada Kana tsumo 12,0000%80%17%3%-4.9+17.7-9.5-3.4
South 2, 1 honbaSetokuma Naoki tsumo 12,0000%94%5%1%+25.5-6.7-6.8-12.0
South 3Setokuma Naoki tsumo 4,0000%94%5%1%+15.0+1.6-10.1-6.5
South 4Setokuma Naoki tsumo 8,0000%99%0%0%+17.4-1.2-8.1-8.1

All 2024-25 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)