Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
9/30 Game 1
Kana Nakada finished 1st (+70.1pt). The game was decided in East 3: Kana Nakada ron 12,000 from Maki Asami, which moved Kana Nakada's expected points by +34.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Kana Nakada 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Maki Asami 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Kana Nakada Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Maki Asami Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Maki Asami tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 26% | 22% | 25% | -13.1 | -5.5 | -3.9 | +22.5 |
| East 2 | Kana Nakada tsumo 12,000 | 16% | 20% | 21% | 42% | -11.7 | +32.8 | -10.4 | -10.7 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kana Nakada ron 3,900 from Maki Asami | 10% | 45% | 14% | 32% | +2.4 | +10.4 | -1.0 | -11.9 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 10% | 56% | 13% | 22% | -2.3 | +5.1 | -0.4 | -2.4 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 12,000 | 9% | 60% | 12% | 19% | -10.5 | -17.3 | +37.6 | -9.8 |
| East 3 | Kana Nakada ron 12,000 from Maki Asami | 6% | 42% | 37% | 15% | -0.7 | +34.8 | -8.0 | -26.1 |
| East 4 | Hisato Sasaki ron 2,600 from Kana Nakada | 2% | 78% | 17% | 3% | +1.1 | -4.7 | +7.2 | -3.6 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 73% | 22% | 2% | +1.2 | +2.8 | -5.4 | +1.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Maki Asami tsumo 4,000 | 3% | 77% | 18% | 2% | -10.4 | +1.6 | -2.8 | +11.6 |
| South 2 | Kana Nakada tsumo 12,000 | 1% | 83% | 13% | 3% | -4.5 | +16.1 | -7.0 | -4.5 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 12,000 | 0% | 95% | 5% | 1% | +26.5 | -6.7 | -7.3 | -12.4 |
| South 3 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 95% | 4% | 1% | +13.7 | +1.4 | -9.6 | -5.5 |
| South 4 | Naoki Setokuma tsumo 8,000 | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | +17.8 | -1.0 | -8.2 | -8.6 |