Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
10/1 Game 1
Akina Mizuhara finished 1st (+59.2pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto, which moved Akina Mizuhara's expected points by +46.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Akina Mizuhara 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Takaki Asai 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Akina Mizuhara Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Takaki Asai Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 2,700 | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | -5.8 | +8.6 | -1.8 | -1.0 |
| East 2 | Exhaustive draw | 20% | 30% | 24% | 26% | +3.8 | -0.7 | -1.1 | -2.0 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 1,100 | 24% | 29% | 22% | 25% | +10.6 | -3.0 | -3.7 | -3.9 |
| East 3 | Takaki Asai ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 30% | 27% | 21% | 22% | -3.5 | -1.6 | +35.0 | -29.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Takaki Asai ron 1,500 from Takaya Matsugase | 24% | 22% | 45% | 8% | +0.7 | -3.7 | +3.8 | -0.8 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 3,900 from Takaya Matsugase | 24% | 20% | 49% | 7% | +15.0 | -14.1 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
| East 4 | Takaki Asai tsumo 2,000 | 35% | 12% | 47% | 6% | 0.0 | -1.2 | +7.1 | -5.9 |
| South 1 | Takaya Matsugase ron 3,900 from Akina Mizuhara | 33% | 10% | 55% | 3% | -14.1 | +9.2 | +5.7 | -0.8 |
| South 2 | Takaki Asai tsumo 2,000 | 18% | 12% | 67% | 3% | -1.4 | -6.2 | +10.3 | -2.8 |
| South 3 | Akina Mizuhara tsumo 2,700 | 12% | 4% | 83% | 2% | +7.2 | -4.3 | -2.1 | -0.8 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 13% | 2% | 83% | 2% | 0.0 | -1.0 | -2.1 | +3.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Akina Mizuhara ron 8,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 15% | 2% | 81% | 3% | +46.9 | -0.3 | -31.3 | -15.4 |