Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
10/1 Game 1
Mizuhara Akina finished 1st (+59.2pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Mizuhara Akina ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro, which moved Mizuhara Akina's expected points by +46.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Mizuhara Akina 1st-place chance | Matsugase Takaya 1st-place chance | Asai Takaki 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Mizuhara Akina Expected pt change | Matsugase Takaya Expected pt change | Asai Takaki Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Matsugase Takaya tsumo 2,700 | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% | -4.1 | +7.8 | -3.5 | -0.2 |
| East 2 | Draw | 23% | 30% | 22% | 25% | -1.1 | +2.9 | -0.9 | -0.9 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 1,100 | 21% | 32% | 23% | 24% | +9.2 | -2.2 | -4.1 | -3.0 |
| East 3 | Asai Takaki ron 12,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 28% | 29% | 20% | 23% | -1.3 | -4.0 | +36.8 | -31.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Asai Takaki ron 1,500 from Matsugase Takaya | 22% | 24% | 46% | 8% | +0.6 | -3.4 | +2.7 | +0.1 |
| East 3, 2 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 3,900 from Matsugase Takaya | 23% | 21% | 49% | 7% | +15.2 | -15.2 | -0.7 | +0.7 |
| East 4 | Asai Takaki tsumo 2,000 | 33% | 11% | 48% | 8% | +0.9 | -1.7 | +8.4 | -7.5 |
| South 1 | Matsugase Takaya ron 3,900 from Mizuhara Akina | 31% | 9% | 57% | 3% | -13.7 | +10.6 | +4.0 | -0.9 |
| South 2 | Asai Takaki tsumo 2,000 | 19% | 14% | 64% | 4% | -1.5 | -7.8 | +10.9 | -1.6 |
| South 3 | Mizuhara Akina tsumo 2,700 | 11% | 3% | 83% | 3% | +8.0 | -3.7 | -1.5 | -2.8 |
| South 4 | Draw | 13% | 1% | 84% | 2% | -0.6 | -0.5 | -1.8 | +2.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Mizuhara Akina ron 8,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 15% | 1% | 81% | 2% | +46.9 | -0.6 | -31.9 | -14.4 |