Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
10/1 Game 2
Kayamori Sayaka finished 1st (+68.6pt). The game was decided in East 4: Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000, which moved Kayamori Sayaka's expected points by +35.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kayamori Sayaka 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Nikaido Rumi 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Kayamori Sayaka Expected pt change | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Nikaido Rumi Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kayamori Sayaka ron 12,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 25% | 25% | 24% | 26% | +30.8 | -29.5 | -0.6 | -0.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 1,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 49% | 9% | 21% | 21% | -3.2 | -0.9 | -0.4 | +4.4 |
| East 2 | Nikaido Rumi ron 3,900 from Nakabayashi Kei | 46% | 9% | 21% | 24% | +1.3 | -3.7 | +13.2 | -10.8 |
| East 3 | Draw | 47% | 6% | 29% | 17% | -9.1 | +3.1 | +4.2 | +1.8 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 2,600 from Kayamori Sayaka | 38% | 8% | 34% | 20% | -4.3 | +8.8 | -5.1 | +0.5 |
| East 4 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 12,000 | 35% | 12% | 31% | 21% | +35.9 | -8.1 | -9.5 | -18.3 |
| South 1 | Kayamori Sayaka tsumo 18,000 | 74% | 5% | 14% | 7% | +28.3 | -6.7 | -10.9 | -10.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro ron 3,900 from Nikaido Rumi | 96% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0.0 | +8.7 | -9.9 | +1.1 |
| South 2 | Draw | 97% | 1% | 1% | 1% | -0.7 | -5.1 | -2.0 | +7.9 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kayamori Sayaka ron 2,600 from Nakabayashi Kei | 98% | 0% | 1% | 1% | +3.8 | +2.3 | +4.7 | -10.8 |
| South 4 | Nakabayashi Kei ron 12,000 from Kayamori Sayaka | 100% | 0% | 0% | 1% | -13.2 | -13.8 | -11.6 | +38.5 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 12,000 | 96% | 0% | 0% | 4% | -1.6 | +48.1 | -20.1 | -26.3 |