Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
10/1 Game 2
Sayaka Kayamori finished 1st (+68.6pt). The game was decided in East 4: Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000, which moved Sayaka Kayamori's expected points by +35.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sayaka Kayamori 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Rumi Nikaido 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Sayaka Kayamori Expected pt change | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Rumi Nikaido Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sayaka Kayamori ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 26% | 24% | 23% | 27% | +31.7 | -30.8 | -0.8 | -0.1 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 1,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 49% | 8% | 21% | 22% | -4.9 | -0.7 | +2.8 | +2.7 |
| East 2 | Rumi Nikaido ron 3,900 from Kei Nakabayashi | 45% | 9% | 23% | 23% | +4.1 | -4.9 | +12.7 | -11.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 50% | 5% | 29% | 16% | -7.5 | +2.3 | +1.9 | +3.2 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 2,600 from Sayaka Kayamori | 42% | 7% | 33% | 18% | -8.2 | +9.4 | -2.8 | +1.6 |
| East 4 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 12,000 | 36% | 10% | 32% | 22% | +35.6 | -3.7 | -12.6 | -19.3 |
| South 1 | Sayaka Kayamori tsumo 18,000 | 74% | 6% | 14% | 6% | +28.4 | -10.1 | -10.6 | -7.8 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto ron 3,900 from Rumi Nikaido | 96% | 1% | 2% | 1% | -0.4 | +9.2 | -8.8 | 0.0 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 97% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0.0 | -6.5 | -0.8 | +7.3 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Sayaka Kayamori ron 2,600 from Kei Nakabayashi | 98% | 0% | 1% | 1% | +3.9 | +4.0 | +3.8 | -11.7 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi ron 12,000 from Sayaka Kayamori | 99% | 0% | 0% | 1% | -13.2 | -13.8 | -12.8 | +39.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 12,000 | 97% | 0% | 0% | 3% | -1.7 | +47.6 | -19.1 | -26.7 |