Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
10/4 Game 2
Futoshi Watanabe finished 1st (+64.4pt). The game was decided in East 1: Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000, which moved Futoshi Watanabe's expected points by +33.9.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Takaya Matsugase 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Takaya Matsugase Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000 | 26% | 25% | 25% | 23% | -19.0 | -6.7 | -8.1 | +33.9 |
| East 2 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 1,100 | 13% | 19% | 18% | 51% | -0.9 | -5.4 | +3.8 | +2.5 |
| East 3 | Go Kobayashi tsumo 8,000 | 12% | 14% | 19% | 54% | +20.6 | -3.7 | -12.2 | -4.8 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 23% | 13% | 14% | 50% | -1.1 | -3.4 | +0.3 | +4.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000 | 22% | 12% | 12% | 55% | -12.2 | -10.1 | -7.1 | +29.3 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 7% | 3% | 5% | 84% | +4.1 | +0.6 | -3.6 | -1.1 |
| South 1, 3 honba | Hisato Sasaki ron 1,300 from Go Kobayashi | 8% | 3% | 3% | 85% | -11.4 | +11.3 | -3.2 | +3.3 |
| South 2 | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 4% | 2% | 92% | +3.6 | -1.2 | +3.1 | -5.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 1,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 4% | 5% | 5% | 86% | +6.1 | -2.5 | -6.7 | +3.1 |
| South 3 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 2,000 from Takaya Matsugase | 2% | 1% | 3% | 94% | +4.5 | +1.6 | -10.7 | +4.6 |
| South 4 | Takaya Matsugase tsumo 5,200 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 99% | +5.0 | -3.0 | +1.6 | -3.5 |