Most differences in results are within chance.They do not justify criticizing players.

Game · 2024-25 Regular Season

10/4 Game 2

Futoshi Watanabe finished 1st (+64.4pt). The game was decided in East 1: Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,000, which moved Futoshi Watanabe's expected points by +33.9.

1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand

0%25%50%75%100%East 1East 4South 2End● Futoshi Watanabe● Go Kobayashi● Hisato Sasaki● Takaya Matsugase0%25%50%75%100%East 1South 1End● Futoshi● Go● Hisato● Takaya
The chance of finishing 1st, at the start of each hand (estimated by simulation). Shaded: the hand that decided this game.

Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points

HandsResultGo Kobayashi
1st-place chance
Hisato Sasaki
1st-place chance
Takaya Matsugase
1st-place chance
Futoshi Watanabe
1st-place chance
Go Kobayashi
Expected pt change
Hisato Sasaki
Expected pt change
Takaya Matsugase
Expected pt change
Futoshi Watanabe
Expected pt change
East 1Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,00026%25%25%23%-19.0-6.7-8.1+33.9
East 2Takaya Matsugase tsumo 1,10013%19%18%51%-0.9-5.4+3.8+2.5
East 3Go Kobayashi tsumo 8,00012%14%19%54%+20.6-3.7-12.2-4.8
East 4Exhaustive draw23%13%14%50%-1.1-3.4+0.3+4.3
East 4, 1 honbaFutoshi Watanabe tsumo 12,00022%12%12%55%-12.2-10.1-7.1+29.3
East 4, 2 honbaExhaustive draw7%3%5%84%+4.1+0.6-3.6-1.1
South 1, 3 honbaHisato Sasaki ron 1,300 from Go Kobayashi8%3%3%85%-11.4+11.3-3.2+3.3
South 2Exhaustive draw2%4%2%92%+3.6-1.2+3.1-5.4
South 2, 1 honbaGo Kobayashi ron 1,000 from Takaya Matsugase4%5%5%86%+6.1-2.5-6.7+3.1
South 3Futoshi Watanabe ron 2,000 from Takaya Matsugase2%1%3%94%+4.5+1.6-10.7+4.6
South 4Takaya Matsugase tsumo 5,2001%0%0%99%+5.0-3.0+1.6-3.5

All 2024-25 games / This game's record (M League Haifu)