Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
10/11 Game 2
Asai Takaki finished 1st (+57.6pt). The game was decided in East 4, 2 honba: Asai Takaki ron 12,000 from Nakabayashi Kei, which moved Asai Takaki's expected points by +31.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Sugawara Hiroe 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Setokuma Naoki 1st-place chance | Asai Takaki 1st-place chance | Sugawara Hiroe Expected pt change | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Setokuma Naoki Expected pt change | Asai Takaki Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Draw | 25% | 24% | 25% | 27% | -1.6 | -0.9 | -2.7 | +5.2 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Nakabayashi Kei ron 5,800 from Setokuma Naoki | 22% | 24% | 23% | 31% | -1.5 | +20.0 | -16.5 | -2.1 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Draw | 21% | 38% | 15% | 27% | -0.6 | +4.5 | +0.5 | -4.3 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Asai Takaki tsumo 5,200 | 19% | 42% | 15% | 24% | -2.1 | -13.7 | -6.0 | +21.8 |
| East 3 | Draw | 19% | 28% | 12% | 41% | +4.1 | +2.7 | -5.5 | -1.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Asai Takaki ron 1,500 from Setokuma Naoki | 21% | 32% | 8% | 40% | -0.5 | -1.7 | -4.4 | +6.6 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Asai Takaki ron 12,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 18% | 28% | 6% | 47% | +0.2 | -33.9 | +2.3 | +31.5 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 4,000 | 12% | 4% | 4% | 79% | -2.9 | +12.4 | -5.0 | -4.4 |
| South 1 | Draw | 10% | 9% | 3% | 77% | -5.9 | -3.2 | +3.1 | +6.1 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 8,000 | 4% | 6% | 3% | 87% | +21.2 | -13.6 | -6.5 | -1.0 |
| South 3 | Sugawara Hiroe ron 8,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 10% | 1% | 2% | 87% | +18.0 | -20.3 | +5.2 | -2.9 |
| South 4 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 21% | 0% | 0% | 79% | -11.3 | +27.6 | -17.2 | +1.0 |