Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
10/11 Game 2
Takaki Asai finished 1st (+57.6pt). The game was decided in East 4, 2 honba: Takaki Asai ron 12,000 from Kei Nakabayashi, which moved Takaki Asai's expected points by +32.1.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hiroe Sugawara 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Naoki Setokuma 1st-place chance | Takaki Asai 1st-place chance | Hiroe Sugawara Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Naoki Setokuma Expected pt change | Takaki Asai Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 27% | 24% | 24% | 26% | -5.0 | -0.3 | -0.8 | +6.1 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Kei Nakabayashi ron 5,800 from Naoki Setokuma | 23% | 24% | 23% | 30% | -2.1 | +20.0 | -17.7 | -0.2 |
| East 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 19% | 39% | 14% | 29% | +2.0 | +2.6 | +0.8 | -5.3 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Takaki Asai tsumo 5,200 | 20% | 41% | 15% | 24% | -5.6 | -8.3 | -4.9 | +18.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 16% | 32% | 13% | 40% | +8.1 | -2.3 | -7.2 | +1.4 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Takaki Asai ron 1,500 from Naoki Setokuma | 22% | 30% | 8% | 40% | -1.1 | +0.9 | -4.9 | +5.0 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Takaki Asai ron 12,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 20% | 30% | 6% | 45% | -1.0 | -33.3 | +2.2 | +32.1 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 4,000 | 11% | 6% | 4% | 79% | -2.8 | +10.0 | -1.8 | -5.5 |
| South 1 | Exhaustive draw | 11% | 9% | 3% | 76% | -6.5 | -2.4 | +1.5 | +7.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 6% | 3% | 87% | +21.7 | -15.5 | -4.8 | -1.4 |
| South 3 | Hiroe Sugawara ron 8,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 10% | 1% | 2% | 87% | +18.5 | -18.5 | +3.4 | -3.4 |
| South 4 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 22% | 0% | 0% | 78% | -11.8 | +27.1 | -16.8 | +1.6 |