Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
10/15 Game 1
Go Kobayashi finished 1st (+58.0pt). The game was decided in East 4, 1 honba: Go Kobayashi ron 7,700 from Hiroe Sugawara, which moved Go Kobayashi's expected points by +21.7.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Namba Shibukawa 1st-place chance | Hiroe Sugawara 1st-place chance | Hisato Sasaki 1st-place chance | Go Kobayashi 1st-place chance | Namba Shibukawa Expected pt change | Hiroe Sugawara Expected pt change | Hisato Sasaki Expected pt change | Go Kobayashi Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Hisato Sasaki tsumo 8,000 | 25% | 23% | 27% | 25% | -12.1 | -4.6 | +21.4 | -4.7 |
| East 2 | Namba Shibukawa ron 3,900 from Hiroe Sugawara | 17% | 20% | 42% | 21% | +10.2 | -15.2 | +3.2 | +1.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 11% | 46% | 21% | +5.1 | -1.9 | -6.7 | +3.5 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 7,700 from Hiroe Sugawara | 25% | 11% | 39% | 25% | +0.1 | -17.8 | -3.9 | +21.7 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Hiroe Sugawara ron 1,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 24% | 4% | 32% | 40% | -5.8 | +1.6 | +5.4 | -1.2 |
| South 1 | Namba Shibukawa tsumo 3,900 | 19% | 4% | 39% | 38% | +12.5 | -2.0 | -7.2 | -3.3 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Hiroe Sugawara ron 8,000 from Namba Shibukawa | 29% | 5% | 31% | 35% | -28.7 | +17.6 | +7.2 | +3.9 |
| South 2 | Hiroe Sugawara tsumo 3,000 | 10% | 11% | 40% | 40% | -2.6 | +9.5 | -2.4 | -4.6 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Go Kobayashi ron 2,600 from Namba Shibukawa | 10% | 13% | 40% | 37% | -11.8 | -2.3 | -1.1 | +15.2 |
| South 3 | Go Kobayashi ron 2,000 from Hiroe Sugawara | 4% | 8% | 34% | 55% | -2.3 | -7.8 | -3.6 | +13.7 |
| South 4 | Go Kobayashi ron 2,900 from Namba Shibukawa | 2% | 1% | 19% | 78% | -5.3 | -0.4 | -2.2 | +7.8 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 1% | 12% | 87% | -4.1 | +3.3 | -3.2 | +4.0 |