Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
10/15 Game 1
Kobayashi Go finished 1st (+58.0pt). The game was decided in East 4, 1 honba: Kobayashi Go ron 7,700 from Sugawara Hiroe, which moved Kobayashi Go's expected points by +18.3.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Shibukawa Namba 1st-place chance | Sugawara Hiroe 1st-place chance | Sasaki Hisato 1st-place chance | Kobayashi Go 1st-place chance | Shibukawa Namba Expected pt change | Sugawara Hiroe Expected pt change | Sasaki Hisato Expected pt change | Kobayashi Go Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Sasaki Hisato tsumo 8,000 | 26% | 25% | 23% | 26% | -13.1 | -8.5 | +26.1 | -4.4 |
| East 2 | Shibukawa Namba ron 3,900 from Sugawara Hiroe | 16% | 19% | 44% | 22% | +12.3 | -12.0 | +1.4 | -1.7 |
| East 3 | Draw | 23% | 12% | 45% | 21% | +3.6 | -5.2 | -4.2 | +5.7 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Kobayashi Go ron 7,700 from Sugawara Hiroe | 25% | 10% | 40% | 25% | -0.9 | -15.2 | -2.2 | +18.3 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Sugawara Hiroe ron 1,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 22% | 5% | 36% | 37% | -5.6 | +0.9 | +1.7 | +3.0 |
| South 1 | Shibukawa Namba tsumo 3,900 | 18% | 4% | 37% | 40% | +12.3 | -2.3 | -3.4 | -6.6 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sugawara Hiroe ron 8,000 from Shibukawa Namba | 28% | 5% | 35% | 33% | -27.2 | +17.3 | +3.8 | +6.1 |
| South 2 | Sugawara Hiroe tsumo 3,000 | 10% | 10% | 39% | 41% | -4.0 | +11.1 | -1.1 | -6.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Kobayashi Go ron 2,600 from Shibukawa Namba | 9% | 15% | 40% | 36% | -9.1 | -5.4 | -0.2 | +14.7 |
| South 3 | Kobayashi Go ron 2,000 from Sugawara Hiroe | 4% | 7% | 36% | 53% | -3.8 | -5.6 | -4.3 | +13.7 |
| South 4 | Kobayashi Go ron 2,900 from Shibukawa Namba | 1% | 2% | 21% | 75% | -5.1 | -0.9 | -3.1 | +9.0 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Draw | 1% | 1% | 12% | 87% | -4.2 | +3.1 | -3.2 | +4.3 |