Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
10/15 Game 2
Sarukawa Masatoshi finished 1st (+64.0pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Sarukawa Masatoshi ron 8,000 from Date Arisa, which moved Sarukawa Masatoshi's expected points by +29.5.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Nakabayashi Kei 1st-place chance | Uchikawa Kotaro 1st-place chance | Sarukawa Masatoshi 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Nakabayashi Kei Expected pt change | Uchikawa Kotaro Expected pt change | Sarukawa Masatoshi Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 2,000 from Nakabayashi Kei | 24% | 25% | 25% | 26% | -4.6 | +3.9 | -0.3 | +1.1 |
| East 2 | Sarukawa Masatoshi tsumo 8,000 | 20% | 28% | 26% | 26% | -7.5 | -12.8 | +25.0 | -4.7 |
| East 3 | Draw | 15% | 17% | 46% | 23% | -0.1 | -0.7 | -0.1 | +0.9 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 5,200 from Sarukawa Masatoshi | 14% | 19% | 45% | 22% | -3.1 | +20.3 | -17.3 | +0.1 |
| East 4 | Sarukawa Masatoshi tsumo 8,000 | 14% | 32% | 29% | 24% | -5.7 | -6.9 | +26.2 | -13.7 |
| South 1 | Nakabayashi Kei tsumo 12,000 | 9% | 23% | 55% | 13% | +36.5 | -10.7 | -12.6 | -13.2 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Sarukawa Masatoshi ron 8,000 from Date Arisa | 33% | 18% | 40% | 8% | -7.2 | -4.5 | +29.5 | -17.8 |
| South 2 | Date Arisa tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 9% | 74% | 2% | -3.4 | -14.6 | +3.0 | +14.9 |
| South 3 | Sarukawa Masatoshi tsumo 7,800 | 10% | 2% | 83% | 5% | -4.7 | -4.5 | +12.3 | -3.2 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro tsumo 8,000 | 3% | 1% | 95% | 2% | -9.6 | +23.0 | -4.4 | -9.0 |
| South 4 | Date Arisa ron 5,800 from Uchikawa Kotaro | 0% | 1% | 96% | 2% | +5.8 | -16.5 | +0.1 | +10.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Uchikawa Kotaro ron 2,600 from Date Arisa | 1% | 0% | 96% | 3% | +7.9 | +4.6 | +2.1 | -14.6 |