Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
10/15 Game 2
Masatoshi Sarukawa finished 1st (+64.0pt). The game was decided in South 1, 1 honba: Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 8,000 from Arisa Date, which moved Masatoshi Sarukawa's expected points by +30.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Kotaro Uchikawa 1st-place chance | Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Kotaro Uchikawa Expected pt change | Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 2,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 24% | 25% | 26% | 25% | -4.7 | +5.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| East 2 | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 8,000 | 21% | 28% | 25% | 25% | -4.7 | -14.6 | +21.8 | -2.6 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 18% | 17% | 42% | 23% | -3.8 | 0.0 | +2.3 | +1.5 |
| East 3, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 5,200 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 15% | 18% | 44% | 24% | -2.3 | +21.0 | -16.8 | -1.9 |
| East 4 | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 8,000 | 15% | 33% | 29% | 23% | -5.2 | -7.6 | +26.3 | -13.5 |
| South 1 | Kei Nakabayashi tsumo 12,000 | 10% | 23% | 55% | 12% | +35.8 | -10.7 | -13.6 | -11.5 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 8,000 from Arisa Date | 33% | 19% | 39% | 9% | -7.2 | -3.9 | +30.6 | -19.6 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date tsumo 8,000 | 16% | 9% | 73% | 2% | -1.7 | -15.4 | +1.9 | +15.2 |
| South 3 | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 7,800 | 12% | 2% | 82% | 5% | -6.9 | -3.1 | +13.5 | -3.4 |
| South 3, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa tsumo 8,000 | 2% | 0% | 95% | 2% | -8.5 | +21.4 | -4.6 | -8.3 |
| South 4 | Arisa Date ron 5,800 from Kotaro Uchikawa | 1% | 1% | 96% | 2% | +6.2 | -17.5 | +0.7 | +10.6 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Kotaro Uchikawa ron 2,600 from Arisa Date | 1% | 0% | 97% | 2% | +7.1 | +5.8 | +1.5 | -14.5 |