Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
10/17 Game 2
Katsumata Kenji finished 1st (+69.0pt). The game was decided in East 4, 2 honba: Katsumata Kenji ron 12,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro, which moved Katsumata Kenji's expected points by +39.6.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Matsumoto Yoshihiro 1st-place chance | Date Arisa 1st-place chance | Hagiwara Masato 1st-place chance | Katsumata Kenji 1st-place chance | Matsumoto Yoshihiro Expected pt change | Date Arisa Expected pt change | Hagiwara Masato Expected pt change | Katsumata Kenji Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Katsumata Kenji tsumo 4,000 | 26% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -6.9 | -3.9 | -1.9 | +12.7 |
| East 2 | Hagiwara Masato tsumo 12,000 | 21% | 23% | 23% | 34% | -7.3 | -19.4 | +34.6 | -7.9 |
| East 3 | Draw | 14% | 10% | 50% | 25% | +6.2 | -3.0 | -1.1 | -2.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Draw | 15% | 9% | 52% | 25% | -1.7 | -1.4 | -1.4 | +4.5 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 12,000 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 16% | 8% | 49% | 27% | -32.2 | +2.7 | -10.0 | +39.6 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Hagiwara Masato ron 5,200 from Matsumoto Yoshihiro | 3% | 6% | 29% | 62% | -11.9 | -1.1 | +19.1 | -6.1 |
| South 1 | Date Arisa tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 4% | 46% | 49% | -6.9 | +8.3 | -3.6 | +2.1 |
| South 2 | Date Arisa tsumo 9,600 | 0% | 5% | 41% | 54% | -4.5 | +19.6 | -6.4 | -8.7 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Draw | 0% | 15% | 39% | 46% | +0.5 | -2.6 | +2.1 | 0.0 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Katsumata Kenji ron 12,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 0% | 14% | 41% | 46% | -0.3 | -2.9 | -34.6 | +37.7 |
| South 3 | Matsumoto Yoshihiro tsumo 16,000 | 0% | 1% | 4% | 94% | +22.4 | +0.1 | -20.7 | -1.8 |
| South 4 | Date Arisa ron 1,000 from Hagiwara Masato | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -7.0 | +9.2 | -1.0 | -1.2 |