Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
10/17 Game 2
Kenji Katsumata finished 1st (+69.0pt). The game was decided in East 4, 2 honba: Kenji Katsumata ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto, which moved Kenji Katsumata's expected points by +38.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Yoshihiro Matsumoto 1st-place chance | Arisa Date 1st-place chance | Masato Hagiwara 1st-place chance | Kenji Katsumata 1st-place chance | Yoshihiro Matsumoto Expected pt change | Arisa Date Expected pt change | Masato Hagiwara Expected pt change | Kenji Katsumata Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kenji Katsumata tsumo 4,000 | 24% | 26% | 27% | 24% | -5.8 | -3.2 | -3.4 | +12.4 |
| East 2 | Masato Hagiwara tsumo 12,000 | 19% | 24% | 23% | 34% | -7.3 | -19.2 | +35.4 | -8.9 |
| East 3 | Exhaustive draw | 14% | 11% | 52% | 24% | +5.4 | -4.7 | +0.6 | -1.3 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 15% | 9% | 54% | 23% | -1.3 | -1.9 | -4.1 | +7.3 |
| East 4, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 12,000 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 15% | 8% | 49% | 28% | -32.4 | +1.9 | -7.5 | +38.0 |
| East 4, 3 honba | Masato Hagiwara ron 5,200 from Yoshihiro Matsumoto | 2% | 6% | 30% | 62% | -12.1 | +1.8 | +15.8 | -5.5 |
| South 1 | Arisa Date tsumo 4,000 | 1% | 4% | 45% | 51% | -5.6 | +7.3 | -0.8 | -0.9 |
| South 2 | Arisa Date tsumo 9,600 | 0% | 6% | 44% | 50% | -4.6 | +18.1 | -6.1 | -7.4 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 14% | 41% | 45% | +0.5 | -0.6 | -0.4 | +0.5 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Kenji Katsumata ron 12,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 0% | 15% | 40% | 45% | +0.2 | -2.0 | -35.9 | +37.7 |
| South 3 | Yoshihiro Matsumoto tsumo 16,000 | 0% | 1% | 4% | 94% | +21.6 | -1.0 | -18.7 | -1.8 |
| South 4 | Arisa Date ron 1,000 from Masato Hagiwara | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | -6.8 | +8.6 | -0.8 | -1.0 |