Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
10/18 Game 2
Shingo Hori finished 1st (+87.4pt). The game was decided in South 2: Shingo Hori tsumo 18,000, which moved Shingo Hori's expected points by +49.8.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Hiroshi Daigo 1st-place chance | Shingo Hori 1st-place chance | Kana Nakada 1st-place chance | Futoshi Watanabe 1st-place chance | Hiroshi Daigo Expected pt change | Shingo Hori Expected pt change | Kana Nakada Expected pt change | Futoshi Watanabe Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Kana Nakada tsumo 12,000 | 25% | 25% | 25% | 25% | -17.3 | -7.1 | +36.4 | -11.9 |
| East 2 | Shingo Hori ron 12,000 from Hiroshi Daigo | 13% | 18% | 53% | 16% | -26.1 | +28.8 | -3.9 | +1.3 |
| East 2, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 12,000 from Kana Nakada | 4% | 37% | 44% | 15% | +27.0 | +2.1 | -29.6 | +0.5 |
| East 3 | Futoshi Watanabe tsumo 8,000 | 13% | 43% | 24% | 19% | -4.2 | -5.3 | -13.9 | +23.3 |
| East 4 | Futoshi Watanabe ron 12,000 from Kana Nakada | 12% | 38% | 15% | 34% | +0.8 | -3.6 | -28.3 | +31.1 |
| East 4, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 2,600 from Futoshi Watanabe | 8% | 27% | 3% | 62% | +6.4 | +1.9 | -1.7 | -6.6 |
| South 1 | Hiroshi Daigo tsumo 12,000 | 11% | 29% | 4% | 57% | +34.3 | -12.9 | -9.0 | -12.4 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Shingo Hori tsumo 4,000 | 36% | 21% | 2% | 41% | -8.6 | +10.8 | -1.8 | -0.4 |
| South 2 | Shingo Hori tsumo 18,000 | 28% | 29% | 2% | 42% | -19.8 | +49.8 | -7.1 | -23.0 |
| South 2, 1 honba | Exhaustive draw | 3% | 88% | 1% | 8% | -1.0 | +3.2 | -0.9 | -1.2 |
| South 2, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 2% | 89% | 1% | 8% | +2.6 | +2.1 | +0.5 | -5.2 |
| South 2, 3 honba | Shingo Hori ron 7,700 from Kana Nakada | 3% | 91% | 0% | 6% | +0.5 | +12.7 | -9.9 | -3.3 |
| South 2, 4 honba | Kana Nakada ron 3,900 from Futoshi Watanabe | 1% | 97% | 0% | 3% | +3.1 | -0.4 | +5.1 | -7.7 |
| South 3 | Shingo Hori ron 2,000 from Kana Nakada | 0% | 98% | 0% | 1% | +3.5 | +3.0 | -4.2 | -2.3 |
| South 4 | Exhaustive draw | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | -3.0 | +1.5 | -1.5 | +2.9 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Hiroshi Daigo ron 1,000 from Futoshi Watanabe | 0% | 99% | 0% | 1% | +7.6 | +0.5 | +0.4 | -8.5 |