Game · 2024-25 Regular Season
10/21 Game 2
Masatoshi Sarukawa finished 1st (+67.0pt). The game was decided in South 4, 1 honba: Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 8,000, which moved Masatoshi Sarukawa's expected points by +42.0.
1st-place probabilityat the start of each hand
Hand by handexpected pt change = how much the hand's result moved the expected final points
| Hands | Result | Tomohiro Honda 1st-place chance | Masatoshi Sarukawa 1st-place chance | Kei Nakabayashi 1st-place chance | Sho Shiratori 1st-place chance | Tomohiro Honda Expected pt change | Masatoshi Sarukawa Expected pt change | Kei Nakabayashi Expected pt change | Sho Shiratori Expected pt change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East 1 | Exhaustive draw | 22% | 27% | 25% | 26% | +10.9 | -3.3 | -3.9 | -3.7 |
| East 1, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 9,600 from Masatoshi Sarukawa | 30% | 25% | 22% | 23% | +24.0 | -24.1 | +0.2 | -0.1 |
| East 1, 2 honba | Exhaustive draw | 49% | 11% | 20% | 20% | -0.3 | -2.4 | +1.3 | +1.3 |
| East 2, 3 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 1,500 from Sho Shiratori | 49% | 8% | 21% | 21% | +0.7 | +5.5 | +0.2 | -6.4 |
| East 2, 4 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa ron 5,800 from Tomohiro Honda | 50% | 11% | 21% | 18% | -18.6 | +18.6 | -0.4 | +0.3 |
| East 2, 5 honba | Tomohiro Honda ron 2,000 from Kei Nakabayashi | 34% | 23% | 23% | 20% | +10.2 | -2.4 | -9.3 | +1.4 |
| East 3 | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 5,200 | 44% | 18% | 18% | 21% | +0.2 | +14.0 | -10.6 | -3.6 |
| East 4 | Exhaustive draw | 43% | 28% | 11% | 18% | +5.5 | +4.7 | -1.5 | -8.7 |
| South 1, 1 honba | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 6,000 | 49% | 31% | 10% | 11% | +19.1 | -9.0 | -5.5 | -4.6 |
| South 1, 2 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 8,000 | 70% | 18% | 6% | 6% | -17.6 | +30.9 | -8.6 | -4.7 |
| South 2 | Tomohiro Honda tsumo 8,000 | 44% | 48% | 3% | 5% | +25.2 | -18.9 | -4.4 | -1.9 |
| South 3 | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 4,000 | 82% | 14% | 2% | 3% | -1.1 | +9.9 | -7.0 | -1.8 |
| South 4 | Sho Shiratori ron 7,700 from Kei Nakabayashi | 79% | 20% | 0% | 2% | -1.0 | -0.5 | -11.8 | +13.3 |
| South 4, 1 honba | Masatoshi Sarukawa tsumo 8,000 | 77% | 19% | 0% | 4% | -32.3 | +42.0 | -1.8 | -7.9 |